President Donald Trump has grown fond of a particular "trick" to persuade global markets that the economy is trending in the right direction, but a new analysis from The i Paper argues that the tactic is now running headlong into its expiration date.

With the United States midterm elections just weeks away, Trump and the Republican Party are confronting a potential voter backlash as gasoline and diesel prices remain stubbornly high — an outcome the analysis ties directly to the president's Iran war. Those elevated travel and transportation costs ripple through nearly every sector of the economy, compounding long-standing concerns about affordability.

Writing for The i Paper on Sunday, reporter and columnist James Ball explained that Trump has become comfortable invoking the promise of an impending peace deal with Iran to encourage global oil and stock markets to rally in his favor, even as no meaningful or durable agreement has materialized. Much of that weight rests on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman that under normal conditions carries roughly a fifth of the world's traded oil.

"[Time] and again, Trump would promise that a peace deal or a ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was going to be signed any day now. Time and again, global markets believed him. For most of the year, oil prices have been higher, but not dramatically so. Traders genuinely seemed to believe would have the Iran war wrapped up long before the midterms – and, crucially, long before the northern hemisphere entered the winter months," Ball wrote.

He added: "As a famous TV show once said, winter is coming. Countries have spent most of the year burning their oil and gas reserves, and they are now running low. The Strait of Hormuz isn't open, and for a time the east-west pipeline across Saudi Arabia wasn't working, either. Suddenly, the prospect of oil and gas shortages in the dead of winter looks all too real." The seasonal timing sharpens the point: winter is the peak heating season across the northern hemisphere, meaning stockpiles drawn down over the rest of the year offer their smallest cushion just as consumption reaches its annual high.

Faced with that looming scenario, Ball observed that Trump "isn't managing to promise peace deals quite as often as he used to," even as he continues to "sound positive" about the conflict. The president's most recent claim is that a deal will be reached after the midterms — a timeline that, Ball wrote, left "even the most credulous of observers" wondering why Trump would delay a popular peace deal until after ballots were cast. With little logic left to grasp, they have concluded "that maybe he doesn't have a plan to end his oil crisis, after all." The observable markers from here are concrete: whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens before peak winter demand, and whether any announced deal is actually signed.

"Most Americans are already deeply unhappy with Donald Trump and his administration's performance, including millions of the people who voted for him just two years ago," Ball concluded. "But we may have seen nothing yet: if Trump doesn't magic up a real deal, and soon, oil and gas will soar, inflation will rise with it, and his popularity will explore still new depths. Trump's 'trust me' trick has got him through the summer. It will take much more to get Trump – and America – through the winter."