Trump: "That deal would not be acceptable"

President Donald Trump signaled on Saturday that he is in no hurry to reach an agreement with Iran, rejecting Tehran's latest proposal even as the U.S. military facilitates the movement of ever-larger volumes of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Islamic Republic had reportedly offered a seven-day ceasefire, during which it would fully reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks. In return, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade, unfreeze Iranian assets, and end sanctions on the country's oil exports.

"They want to make a deal and I think that's fine," Trump told reporters outside the White House on Saturday, saying Iran is "losing so badly." "I'd like to make a deal, too. But that deal would not be acceptable."

Privately, Trump has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections, when high gas prices will be less of a political consideration, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Time on the U.S. side

Such bravado comes as U.S. officials believe time is now on their side and no longer on Iran's. The U.S. naval blockade is crushing Iran's economy, and new financial sanctions are tightening the screws even further. Oil markets, meanwhile, have proven far more resilient than expected: crude prices remain high, with refined fuels facing a bigger shock, but trading has yet to see catastrophic extremes even as the Iran war and the strait's closure approach their eighth month.

That is because the strait — the main export route for crude from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other Gulf producers, and one of the most heavily used chokepoints in global energy trade — is only partially closed, and more oil is getting out in recent weeks under the protection of the U.S. military.

On Wednesday, Tanker Trackers estimated that the total amount of crude oil exiting the U.S. blockade line now stands at 13 million barrels day. "The numbers have doubled in less than a month," the firm said in a post on X.

Part of the gain reflects Saudi Arabia shifting its oil shipments back through the Persian Gulf, Tanker Trackers added, after previously diverting them via the East-West Pipeline for export from Red Sea ports. Attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure by Iran-backed Houthi and Iraqi fighters prompted Riyadh to hold off on using that bypass. Tanker Trackers also attributed the recent surge to daytime transits through the Strait of Hormuz carried out with the help of U.S Central Command.

Oil expert Rory Johnston offered a similar estimate, calculating that about 13.5 million barrels per day are now clearing the strait based on the latest seven-day average. That is still well below prewar levels, forcing global reserves to drop further toward critical lows, but it is roughly on par with the brief peak in July, when a U.S.-Iran ceasefire allowed traffic to rebound. That respite quickly fell apart, and attacks on shipping resumed — a reminder of how quickly conditions on the waterway can reverse.

From night convoys to daylight transits

The U.S. military continued guiding ships through the contested waterway after the ceasefire collapsed, but those operations took place at night to lessen the odds of vessels being targeted by Iranian missiles and drones. The nighttime restriction limited how many ships could get through each day. The U.S. military then conducted a series of airstrikes that degraded Iran's ability to detect commercial vessels attempting to sneak out, and the Navy cleared mines from the strait's main corridor. Those steps paved the way for the daytime operations that underpin the recent surge in flows.

With the Iranian threat against shipping now waning, a U.S. official told Axios earlier this month that the military and Gulf countries had begun conducting daytime transits of tankers through the strait.

Even so, moving oil through the strait remains expensive amid the ongoing threat of Iranian attacks. Shipping companies must pay crews more to take on the added risk, while insurance coverage is also costlier. "I continue to stress that while a lot of oil is getting out of Hormuz the cost of getting those barrels out is very high ($30-40+/bbl, excluding the cost of the US military)," Johnston pointed out in a post on X. "That doesn't work if global prices fall (or Gulf exporters try to press their prices higher)."

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.