Despite persistent optimistic rhetoric surrounding the construction of a trans-Afghan natural gas pipeline connecting Turkmenistan to South Asia, concrete evidence of meaningful advancement remains elusive.

The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline has remained in the planning stages for decades. Conceived in the 1990s to tap Turkmenistan's vast natural gas reserves — ranked among the world's largest — the project is intended to deliver 33 billion cubic meters of gas annually to energy-deficient South Asian markets. Construction on the initial segment — a 153-kilometer stretch running from the Turkmen border town of Serhetabat to the western Afghan city of Herat — continues to progress only slowly.

On August 10, Turkmenistan's paramount leader, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, made a brief visit to Afghanistan for talks aimed at accelerating the TAPI project's momentum and deepening broader bilateral trade ties. The visit also carried political significance for Afghanistan's Taliban government, which has sought international engagement and economic partnerships to alleviate its international isolation. Turkmen state-controlled media outlets covering the visit offered little substantive detail, instead emphasizing that "Turkmenistan's peace-loving foreign policy contributes to sustainable development in the region."

Both Turkmen and Afghan officials reaffirmed the strategic significance of the TAPI project and asserted that it is moving forward. For Turkmenistan, TAPI represents a long-sought opportunity to diversify gas export routes beyond its heavy reliance on China, which purchases the overwhelming majority of Turkmen gas. However, official sources provided few specifics beyond select figures, noting that construction "involves approximately 700 Turkmen specialists and over 300 units of specialized equipment."

The most tangible outcome of Berdymukhamedov's visit was the signing of what effectively amounts to a letter of intent, reportedly outlining preliminary terms for the delivery of Turkmen gas to the Herat region. The document also references potential Turkmen participation in establishing a regional gas distribution network in Herat.

Nevertheless, a finalized gas-supply agreement remains distant. The most challenging negotiation points — including pricing and supply volumes — have yet to be resolved. Ashgabat has a well-established reputation for resisting firm commitments on export pricing for its gas. The pipeline's planned route through Afghanistan's southern and eastern provinces, where security conditions remain uncertain, adds another layer of complexity that has historically deterred international investors and financiers.

Deputy Afghan Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar reportedly urged Berdymukhamedov to reach a pricing agreement, but no immediate breakthrough was achieved. "A long-term agreement should be concluded, contain simplified conditions and include a flexible mechanism for reviewing the agreement," an Afghan government statement quoted by the Trend news agency said.

Berdymukhamedov also sought to promote additional regional connectivity initiatives, including a Turkmen-Afghan-Pakistan power transmission line and an accompanying fiber-optic cable. During the visit, he further expressed interest in expanding cross-border trade, highlighting Turkmenistan's Caspian Sea port of Turkmenbashi as a potential transit hub for Afghan exports bound for Western markets. To strengthen economic ties, he proposed establishing a "unified logistics center" designed to reduce transit times for overland and rail freight.

However, there were no indications that the discussions produced concrete agreements to advance any of these proposals.

Source: Eurasianet