Iran has been stepping up its attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, yet the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf is actually running above prewar levels. The reason, for now, is that Gulf states have held back from crossing certain red lines that could plunge the region into an even deeper crisis.

According to tracking firm Kpler, shipments moving through the strait and along alternate routes averaged more than 24 million barrels a day last week, topping the average of 23.3 million barrels a day recorded before the United States and Israel launched the war against Iran in late February.

To be sure, traffic through Hormuz has not returned to normal. The persistent threat of Iranian attacks continues to scare off some tankers. But because transiting the strait can command lucrative payouts, enough shipowners are willing to take on the risk. At the same time, pipelines that bypass the strait are picking up the slack, and some of the world's biggest oil consumers have curbed demand. Prices for certain Middle East oil supplies in Asia are now selling for less than they were a month ago, sources told Bloomberg.

So while the war has dragged on for eight months with no end in sight, oil markets have yet to go off a cliff. Brent crude has surged in recent days on reports that the U.S. and Israel are preparing to attack Iran again, but prices remain below the peaks hit at the height of the war as a new normal takes hold.

"Energy security shocks are persistent, not episodic, and supply-chain and shipping disruptions remain material risks," analysts at JPMorgan wrote in a note on Wednesday. "Energy markets are converging on a forever conflict in the Middle East, but supply has been resilient and demand destruction in China has been key."

A survey of investors by the bank showed that more than half of respondents expect Middle East disruptions to keep energy prices "structurally elevated" over the next 12 months. Even if supplies remain constrained for another year, JPMorgan said demand destruction could keep oil at $90 per barrel and prevent it from soaring to the $120 to $140 level that some forecasters fear.

"Repeated supply shocks are driving a lasting reconfiguration of trade routes and energy corridors, and tail risks remain elevated," the analysts added. "Building resilience in supply chains has become a priority."

Over the longer term, the expansion of pipelines and port infrastructure will help improve the resilience of oil flows, Hamad Hussain, a senior commodities economist at Capital Economics, said in a note last week. But some short-term measures could also move the needle. Saudi Arabia plans to convert an existing natural gas pipeline to carry 1.2 million barrels per day of oil, boosting the kingdom's ability to send crude to its west coast within six to eight weeks, he estimated. And next year, the United Arab Emirates should complete a second pipeline to its port at Fujairah, allowing even more oil to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

"Energy markets are learning to live with conflict," Hussain wrote.

But energy markets cannot persist with too much conflict. Iran has warned that any fresh U.S.-Israeli attacks would prompt it to target not only energy infrastructure, but also the region's data centers and internet cables. Such strikes would likely be met with similar retaliation against Iranian infrastructure, triggering further tit-for-tat exchanges that would threaten the region's ability to pump and ship oil over the long term, and catalyze an even worse energy crisis.

"Wiping out an oil terminal opposite of Iran is equivalent to Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)," TankerTrackers posted on X last week. "How eager is Iran to see its (albeit now-sleepy) Kharg Island oil terminal finally go up in flames? There are lines one simply doesn't cross even during conflict."

Indeed, even the United States has shown signs of restraint. Despite President Donald Trump's earlier threats to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant each time Tehran attacks a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, he has not followed through. Trump has instead favored waging economic warfare: a U.S. naval blockade is choking off Iran's oil exports, while financial sanctions prevent the regime from repatriating revenue generated abroad.

Renewed fighting could still plunge the Middle East into a cycle of destruction, with another aircraft carrier and Marine expeditionary unit now headed to the region. But Trump has backed off from earlier vows to restart all-out war against Iran.

Mike Waltz, Trump's ambassador to the United Nations, also admitted to the Financial Times that the U.S. could remain locked in a stalemate with Iran a year from now, without a deal on Tehran's nuclear program or the Strait of Hormuz. Even so, "the president and the U.S. Navy can maintain this blockade for the foreseeable future," he said, adding that the administration is "tightening" its economic pressure on Iran.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.