Southeast Asia is projected to bring less than one-third of its planned gas-fired power capacity online by 2030, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie, exposing a widening gap between government targets and project execution across the region.

Governments across six major Southeast Asian power markets are targeting approximately 53 GW of new gas-fired capacity by 2030. However, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that only 14.9 GW will reach commercial operation, with volatile fuel costs, equipment shortages, financing constraints, and infrastructure bottlenecks all contributing to project delays. The shortfall carries significant implications for energy security in a region where rapid industrialisation is already straining grid infrastructure, and where several countries — including Singapore, Vietnam, and Indonesia — have announced net-zero emissions targets that frame gas as a transitional bridge fuel away from coal.

"The challenge today is not planning power projects but executing them. New gas-fired capacity depends on several critical enablers, including LNG infrastructure, project financing, and turbine availability. A bottleneck in any one of these areas can delay an entire project," said Alvin Tan, Southeast Asia power and renewables research analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

The report, titled Is Southeast Asia Being Gaslighted? A Deep Dive Into Southeast Asia's Gas-to-Power Market, also finds that only 11 GW of the planned gas-to-power pipeline has secured gas turbines. The remaining capacity, lacking turbine supply, is expected to face delivery lead times of at least five years. Global gas turbine manufacturing is highly concentrated among a small number of suppliers — principally GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries — and order backlogs have grown as markets in Europe, the Middle East, and North America simultaneously pursue new gas-fired builds, intensifying competition for limited equipment allocation.

Growing Electricity Demand

Southeast Asia's electricity demand is projected to grow 2.4-fold by 2050, outpacing China, Australia, and South Korea. This growth is being driven by industrial expansion, the China+1 manufacturing shift, and rising investment in semiconductor production, electronics, and hyperscale data centres. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that gas demand from the power sector will more than double between 2026 and 2050, accounting for more than one-quarter of regional electricity generation by mid-century.

Wood Mackenzie expects Southeast Asia to become a net gas importer by 2033, with LNG projected to supply more than 80% of regional gas demand by 2050. The shift to import dependence would expose Southeast Asian power markets to global gas price dynamics, which have proven more volatile than domestic gas costs — Asian spot LNG prices swung dramatically during the 2022 global energy crisis, underscoring the fuel-cost uncertainty facing LNG-dependent projects. Delivering the region's planned gas capacity is becoming increasingly challenging — while gas turbine shortages have emerged as the most visible constraint, project timelines are also being affected by fuel availability, LNG infrastructure, financing, permitting, and equipment procurement.

"Gas was once seen as a key enabler of Southeast Asia's energy transition, capable of meeting rising electricity demand, supporting the integration of renewable energy, and, most importantly, maintaining energy security. Today, that assumption is being challenged. As gas project delays mount and supply chains tighten, policymakers are being forced to rethink not only the role of gas in the near term, but also the long-term pathways to achieving their energy transition goals," said Wei Han Tan, Southeast Asia power and renewables research analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

Country Breakdown

Vietnam — the largest delivery gap. Vietnam faces the region's widest gap between ambition and delivery. The government targets 29.4 GW of new gas-fired capacity by 2030, but Wood Mackenzie expects only 3.7 GW to come online. Early LNG-to-power projects have exposed commercial challenges around fuel pricing and cost allocation, while uncertainty over domestic gas supply and project timing continues to delay development.

Malaysia — extending existing capacity. Peninsular Malaysia is managing near-term execution risk by extending nearly 5 GW of existing gas-fired capacity through 2030, providing a temporary bridge while new projects progress. Wood Mackenzie forecasts 5.9 GW of new capacity additions against a requirement of approximately 9.4 GW, underscoring the continued need for new-build gas capacity to meet future demand and maintain system reliability. The government is also exploring the repurposing of retiring coal plants into renewable energy hubs.

Indonesia — equipment constraints slow progress. Indonesia has secured turbine supply for only 200 MW of its planned 8.4 GW gas capacity pipeline, the lowest proportion among the markets analysed. While abundant domestic coal reduces near-term reliability risks, it may also slow decarbonisation. As a result, Indonesia is placing greater emphasis on accelerating solar deployment alongside selective gas development.

Singapore — best positioned, but not immune. Singapore remains the region's strongest performer on project execution, with turbine supply secured for all major projects expected before 2030. However, its next procurement round for 1.8 GW of hydrogen-ready generation capacity will test whether even well-prepared markets can continue to navigate tightening global equipment supply.

Philippines — delivery delays threaten reliability. The Philippines faces immediate supply adequacy challenges, highlighted by simultaneous red alerts across the Luzon and Visayas grids in May 2026. Wood Mackenzie forecasts only 0.4 GW of new gas capacity against a government target of approximately 2 GW by 2030. Beyond project delays, fragmented responsibility for long-term resource planning remains a key structural challenge.

Thailand — managing surplus capacity. Thailand's primary challenge is managing an oversupplied power system. Draft PDP2024 targets 1.4 GW of new gas capacity by 2030, while Wood Mackenzie expects only 0.5 GW to be delivered. The bigger question is how policymakers address surplus generation capacity locked into long-term power purchase agreements while advancing the country's energy transition.

Source: Wood Mackenzie