Silver's selloff has paused, with the metal consolidating near recent lows, after dovish comments from two senior Federal Reserve officials: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Philip Jefferson. Williams signaled that one more hike this year is likely to be enough, while Jefferson said weighing additional data will allow the Fed to make a better call on rates — remarks suggesting there is no urgency to raise interest rates again in October.

Their comments reinforced the view that the Fed has a limited appetite for further tightening, a message also consistent with September's dot plot the central bank's quarterly summary of where its policymakers expect rates to head. That stance could continue to support silver if the Fed remains more dovish than markets expect, as real yields could decline should inflation expectations rise faster than nominal yields. Rate expectations matter for silver in part because the metal yields nothing: higher real rates raise the opportunity cost of holding it.

The main focus now turns to the US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, the monthly snapshot of US hiring that Fed officials weigh as they balance their maximum-employment mandate against their inflation goal. Given the recent comments from Williams and Jefferson, a blockbuster report — one that beats expectations across the board — would likely be needed to revive expectations for an October rate hike. Such an outcome could trigger another hawkish repricing and weigh on silver in the short term. Conversely, in-line or weaker-than-expected data would likely reinforce the dovish repricing and give silver room to extend its recent pullback.

Technical Analysis: Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, silver is consolidating around recent lows. If the price retests the broken support that has now turned resistance around the 63.00 level, sellers could step in there with a defined risk above it, keeping their sights on the 55.00 handle. Buyers, for their part, will want to see the price break higher to extend the pullback into the downward trendline.

Technical Analysis: 4-Hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour chart, the price is breaking above the minor downward trendline that had been defining bearish momentum, which may signal a bigger pullback to come. Buyers will likely pile in around these levels, with a defined risk below the lows, to position for a rally into the major downward trendline. Sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price fall back below the trendline to extend the drop into new lows, with the 55.00 level as the first target.

Technical Analysis: 1-Hour Timeframe

The 1-hour chart offers a clearer view of the consolidation around the lows. Buyers will likely look for a rejection at the upward trendline, or a break above the downward one, to extend the rally into the 63.00 resistance. Sellers, meanwhile, will look for short opportunities around the downward trendline, or on a break of the upward one, to position for a drop into new lows. The red lines on the chart define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

The week concludes today with the release of the US NFP report.