Russian crude exports declined by 12% month over month in August to 3.837 million barrels per day, as Black Sea loadings plunged and deliveries to India fell, according to ship and cargo tracking software. The monthly decline underscores how attacks on export infrastructure have become a meaningful swing factor for seaborne crude flows, even as total exports remained above year-ago levels.

Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea, published Sept. 3, showed that exports from Russia's sector of the Black Sea dropped from 849,900 b/d in July to 380,300 b/d in August, while exports from the Russian Baltic region rose from 1.839 million b/d to 1.870 million b/d over the same period. Total Russian exports in August were 12% higher year over year.

The drop in Black Sea loadings comes amid multiple drone attacks targeting infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) — the main crude export route from Kazakhstan that loads at Novorossiysk and also handles some Russian barrels — and tankers loading from the network at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Sept. 3 that Russia will increase oil output once maintenance at refineries is completed, the Tass news agency reported. "We are currently seeing a partial decline in production volumes compared to the forecast, this is partly due to the underutilization of refineries due to unscheduled maintenance," Novak told reporters, according to the report. "Exports are stable, and we are maximizing usage of our export infrastructure capacity, which has been expanded in recent years, including for maritime transport," he added.

Russia had aimed to increase crude and condensate output in 2026 by about 2% to 525 million metric tons, equivalent to about 10.543 million b/d. Whether that target is met will depend heavily on the pace of refinery repairs and the security of Black Sea loading infrastructure in the months ahead.

By destination, Russian exports to India in August stood at 810,000 b/d, down 59% month over month and down 38% year over year. India has been one of the largest buyers of Russian crude since 2022, when Western sanctions and price caps reshaped the traditional flow of Russian barrels toward Asian and transshipment markets. Exports to China were 980,000 b/d, up 9% on the month but down 17% year over year. Deliveries to Egypt, a key transshipment hub from which Russian barrels are typically re-shipped to other buyers, leapt 319% month over month to 935,000 b/d, according to CAS data.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the premium for carrying a cargo of crude on a shadow fleet Suezmax from the Black Sea to the West Coast of India over that on a compliant vessel at $235,856/day on Sept. 2. The shadow fleet refers to tankers operating outside Western insurance and chartering frameworks, whose freight rates have risen as owners price in higher risk. Platts also assessed Urals crude on an FOB basis at Primorsk at $75.63/b on Sept. 2, a $22.86/b discount to Dated Brent, compared with a five-year average discount of $20.63/b — indicating that the discount buyers demand for Russian crude remains wider than its recent historical norm.

Refined product exports rise

Russian exports of refined products rose 14% month over month in August to 1.229 million b/d, though this represented a 42% decrease year over year.

The increase came even as analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA estimated that nearly half of Russia's refining capacity was offline at the end of August. They expect Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries to continue and run rates to remain low, averaging 4.15 million b/d in the fourth quarter.

President Vladimir Putin said that as of early September, only 10% of Russian refineries hit by Ukrainian attacks require repairs, despite intensifying drone strikes on the country's oil infrastructure in August.

"Just last night, there were attempts to strike three more oil refineries. They didn't succeed. That's because those facilities are already protected," Putin said Sept. 1 at a press event in Kyrgyzstan, according to a video published on the Kremlin's website. "That doesn't mean nothing can ever get through, but the level of protection is on a completely different scale," he said.

On the products side, exports to China were 249,853 b/d in August, up 68% month over month and up 30% year over year. Exports to Egypt were 388,420 b/d, up 145% on the month and up 132% year over year, CAS data showed.

Source: Platts