Russia has re-emerged as the top origin for Brazil's gasoline imports in September, preliminary shipping data show. The development marks a notable shift in trade flows for Brazil, Latin America's largest fuel market, where imports typically supplement domestic refining output when local supply falls short of demand or external barrels become competitively priced.

Brazil is expected to receive at least 258,100 cubic meters of imported gasoline through Sept. 16, according to preliminary data from port lineups, market sources, and S&P Global Commodities at Sea. At least six vessels are scheduled to discharge gasoline cargoes at Brazilian ports by early September.

Russia reappeared as an origin for new gasoline cargoes and is set to be the month's main import source, accounting for 138,161 cubic meters, or 54% of September imports, according to preliminary data. Russian refined-product exports have been redirected toward non-Western markets since international sanctions followed the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with Russian barrels frequently offered at competitive prices. The Netherlands ranks second, set to ship 119,940 cubic meters, or 46% of the total.

The decline in shipments from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub comes as regional inventories fell 14.25% to 752,000 metric tons in the week to Aug. 27. Tighter availability of blending components and destocking occurred amid a very steep gasoline backwardation, with a strong prompt premium discouraging inventory building and complicating blending operations.

"The gasoline demand scenario has improved in Europe, and we see blenders having a hard time procuring booster material to turn into finished fuel, amid rising feedstock prices," a major Brazilian distributor said on Aug. 28.

Meanwhile, one additional vessel carrying at least 47,272 cubic meters of gasoline is expected to arrive in Brazil by Aug. 31, with the port of Itaqui set to receive the volume. Live Commodities at Sea data from Aug. 28 showed the tanker Strength about a day away from its port of discharge.

Total gasoline imports are set to reach 600,534 cubic meters in August.

Brazil's gasoline import arbitrage window has now been closed for 184 days, according to an Aug. 28 report by the Brazilian Association of Fuels Importers (Abicom). Across the country's six primary transport fuel trading hubs, domestic prices are averaging about 1,300 reais per cubic meter below import-parity levels. The persistent closure of the arbitrage window, which reflects domestic prices trading below import-parity levels, is a factor market participants routinely track when gauging future import volumes.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Itaqui all-origin gasoline at $2.5077/gallon, with ARA the most competitive origin, at a 54.25-cent discount to NYMEX October RBOB.

Source: Platts