Brent crude rose above $100 for the first time in six weeks after Saudi officials reported Houthi strikes on oil facilities and the U.S. Central Command said it had attacked Iranian oil tankers. Prediction-market traders have sharply shifted toward higher oil prices alongside the move in physical markets.

Brent traded at $101.09 on Wednesday morning, up 3.2% for the day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $96.27. On Myriad, the side of the market predicting that crude will reach $120 before falling to $55 has led since the start of September. Polymarket puts the probability of WTI reaching $100 this month at 59%, nine percentage points higher than before.

The latest move followed roughly a weekend and a half of escalating attacks. Saudi officials said Houthi rebels attacked Saudi oil facilities early Tuesday, wounding 73 people. U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian oil tankers on the same day, after striking three others on Saturday. The attacks came in response to Iranian ballistic-missile attacks on an American warship.

Myriad’s market asks whether crude reaches $120 or falls to $55 first. The $120 outcome currently has a 56.5% share, up 15.1 percentage points. The two sides had traded within a few points of each other since mid-August, with $55 ahead for most of that period. They crossed at the start of September and have not crossed back. The market has recorded $12.7 million in volume since March.

Disclosure: Myriad is a prediction market owned by Dastan, Decrypt’s parent company.

The downside empties out

The sharper repricing has occurred on Polymarket, where a series of September WTI price targets has moved higher. The probability of WTI touching $100 this month is 59%, while the probability of reaching $105 is 30%, up 25 points. Reaching $90 is priced at 71%, up 21 points.

By contrast, the market for WTI falling to $85 has dropped 33 points to 39%, and every lower target is now in the single digits. Myriad still prices $55 as a 44.8% eventual outcome, while Polymarket gives WTI reaching $55 this month a 1% probability. The markets ask different questions: Myriad remains open until one target is reached and has no deadline, while Polymarket’s market closes at the end of September.

Pump prices have also risen. Diesel reached a record $5.94 per gallon on Wednesday, exceeding the high set last week, while gasoline averaged $4.22. The increase comes weeks before midterm elections in which Republicans are already struggling to campaign on affordability.

Source: Decrypt