Philippine coffee output is on course to slip below 30,000 metric tons (MT) in 2026, as rising temperatures continue to strain farming regions across the country, according to the Philippine Coffee Board, Inc. (PCBI).

“We might not reach 30,000 metric tons because of the rate it’s going,” PCBI Chairman Pacita “Chit” Juan told reporters in an interview on Thursday. “Globally, the coffee that used to grow in lower areas, you now need to plant it in higher areas because the temperature has really risen around the world,” she added.

Data from the local statistics agency showed that green coffee bean output reached 35,650 MT in 2025, an 11.5% increase from 31,980 MT a year earlier. A fall back below 30,000 MT would erase those gains and widen an already large gap between what the country grows and what it consumes.

Despite last year’s gains, the projected decline — combined with the looming effects of a “Super El Niño” — has prompted the industry body to encourage farmers to shift toward climate-resilient varieties such as Liberica, Excelsa, and Robusta.

“Our solution is really to give farmers alternatives,” Ms. Juan said. “All of our members in the ASEAN Coffee Federation are working together to develop the same climate-resilient varieties, and number one is Liberica, number two is Excelsa, then Robusta.”

She explained that Arabica, because of increased heat, now requires an elevation of 1,800 to 2,000 meters above sea level, while other local coffee species can thrive at much lower altitudes.

“We don’t really plant anything that’s more than 2,000 meters, but we need to look for places that are 1,800 to 2,000 because… as it heats up, we need to elevate it,” she said. “Liberica, Robusta, and Excelsa for now grow at 200, 300 meters… It could be planted where Arabica is planted now, so we still have coffee,” she added.

To streamline support and farm-based interventions amid the weather phenomenon, PCBI said it plans to work directly with local government units (LGUs).

“That’s where things happen. Not at the top but at the bottom,” Ms. Juan said. “Who gives the fertilizer to the farmers? Who builds the dryers? It’s the LGUs.”

The group estimated the country’s total annual coffee requirement at 150,000 to 200,000 MT, with imports supplying most of that volume. Even last year’s 35,650 MT covered only a fraction of that requirement, and a decline toward 30,000 MT would leave imports to fill an even bigger share of the country’s cups.

In terms of domestic production, Mindanao turned out the largest volume among all regions, while Robusta leads among local coffee types — a profile that lines up with the industry’s pivot toward the lower-elevation, heat-tolerant varieties PCBI is now promoting.

How quickly farmers make the switch, how PCBI’s work with LGUs takes shape on the ground, and how the Super El Niño develops are the key things to watch as the industry heads into 2026.

— Almira Louise S. Martinez