For oil, the split between recovering volumes and stubbornly high physical prices is the key tension. Restored crude flows argue for lower benchmark prices over time, but the premium in Dated Brent shows buyers are still paying up for prompt barrels to rebuild depleted inventories, a pattern that keeps the front of the futures curve steeply backwardated, meaning barrels for nearby delivery command a clear premium over later shipments.

According to Goldman Sachs, Persian Gulf oil exports, including so-called dark exports, recovered to 22 to 23 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the past two weeks, broadly in line with their 2025 average. Physical Dated Brent prices, however, remain very high despite the recovery. In short, the barrels are back but the fear is not: Gulf exports have normalised, while physical buyers keep paying war-level prices.

Dark exports are cargoes carried by tankers that switch off their satellite transponders, making them hard to track. Because such cargoes escape conventional ship-tracking, estimates of total Gulf flows vary widely between banks. Goldman put these flows at around 5 million barrels per day in September, a large part of why its count is higher than others. JPMorgan, using a more conservative approach, estimated recent Gulf exports at about 89% of 2025 levels, with most of the difference coming down to how much of the dark fleet each bank includes.

The recovery has been led by crude rather than refined products. In late September, Goldman said crude exports had climbed above their 2025 average, with Saudi shipments more than doubling during the month to nearly 12 million barrels per day and the United Arab Emirates also exporting above normal. Satellite data showed no seaborne crude exports from Iran. Products are lagging badly: exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel remain around half of normal levels, which Goldman attributes to elevated regional refinery outages and the greater risk faced by smaller product tankers carrying more flammable cargo.

Physical prices tell a different story from the flow data. Dated Brent, the spot price for physical North Sea cargoes loading on specific dates, as opposed to the front-month futures contract, was recently near $120 a barrel, well above futures. Dated Brent underpins the pricing of physical crude cargoes around the world, with Brent crude serving as the international benchmark for the majority of globally traded oil. Goldman links the gap to fears that escalation could damage long-term production and to record-low global stocks outside the OECD — the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a grouping of mostly advanced economies — which have prompted buyers to rebuild supplies quickly.

The bank estimates that the risk premium in Brent spreads — the gaps between futures contracts for different delivery dates — averaged $22 a barrel in September, the second-highest monthly level on record and above the peak reached during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. The phenomenon is not without precedent: in early April, the spot premium of Dated Brent over futures exceeded $25 a barrel, whereas normally that spread is narrow.

Goldman maintains its base case that Brent will ease to $85 by year-end and to $80 in 2027, while warning that renewed escalation could push prices sharply higher. The weekend's claims by Yemen's Houthi movement of strikes on facilities operated by Saudi Aramco, the kingdom's state-controlled oil company, put that risk directly against the barrels that have driven the recovery. Because Saudi shipments have led the rebound, any confirmed disruption would likely widen a physical premium that is already historically elevated. Refined products, meanwhile, remain the tightest corner of the market, supporting diesel and jet fuel margins even as crude supply normalises. Key datapoints to watch from here are independent confirmation of the Aramco strike claims, the pace of regional refinery restarts, and whether product exports climb back from roughly half of normal levels.