Persian Gulf crude exports have climbed above 14 million barrels per day, surpassing that level last week for the first time since the Iran War began on February 28. The recovery shows that tanker traffic around the Strait of Hormuz is rebuilding after disruptions in March pushed regional exports down to roughly 4.5 million barrels per day.

Bloomberg ship-tracking data shared by The Kobeissi Letter in an October 4 post show shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar rising more than 210% from that March low. The four-week average has also approached 14 million barrels per day, its highest level in six months and about 80% of pre-war volumes.

Oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply rebounded: Persian Gulf crude oil exports surpassed 14 million barrels per day last week for the first time since the Iran War on February 28th. This marks an over +210% increase from the ~4.5 million barrels per day low seen… pic.twitter.com/nzNU4ktWm1

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 4, 2026

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2106792212293955969?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Kpler data point to a parallel recovery. Crude moving through Hormuz reached a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels per day in late September, matching its pre-war baseline. Across the wider Middle East, including Red Sea routes, shipments averaged 19.5 million barrels per day, exceeding the earlier benchmark near 17 million barrels per day by roughly 2.5 million barrels per day. Together, the two datasets indicate that crude movements through the region have returned to, and in some cases surpassed, their pre-war levels.

Security Corridor Helps Restore Hormuz Traffic

The rebound followed months of work to reopen shipping lanes and reduce dependence on direct crossings through the strait. Axios reported in August that the U.S. military established a southern corridor along Oman's coast, a route that allowed 15 to 20 tankers to enter and leave Hormuz each night. U.S. Central Command, which oversees the region, later said oil and LNG shipments had reached a six-month high, and CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper said the strait's main transit lanes had been cleared of mines.

Producers have meanwhile expanded alternative routes to keep crude moving while the corridor work continued. Saudi Arabia resumed shipments through its East-West pipeline toward Yanbu, and some cargoes also moved through ship-to-ship transfers near Sohar in Oman and Fujairah in the UAE.

The scale of the flows remains significant because Hormuz is the world's largest oil chokepoint, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. U.S. Energy Information Administration data show 20.9 million barrels per day crossed the strait during the first half of 2025, a total that included 14.7 million barrels per day of crude and condensate.

Refined Fuel Exports Stay at 50%-58% of 2025 Levels

Crude availability has recovered faster than refined fuels. Middle East diesel, gasoline and jet-fuel exports remain around 50% to 58% of 2025 levels, as refinery damage and transport disruptions continue to limit product supplies even as Persian Gulf crude cargoes move freely. The pace of refinery repairs and the reopening of disrupted transport links are the factors to watch for refined-product supply going forward.

That gap has kept fuel markets under pressure. U.S. diesel prices have reached record levels, while Russian refinery disruptions and China's suspension of October fuel exports have tightened global product supply further. Brent settled at $102.25 a barrel on October 2, while WTI closed at $91.11.

The latest figures show that Hormuz is once again carrying oil at scale, but the recovery remains uneven across the region's energy supply chains. Crude flows have returned close to earlier, while refined-fuel exports still reflect refinery damage, logistical bottlenecks and shipping risks. The four-week export average relative to pre-war volumes, and refined-product exports relative to 2025 levels, are the readings to track as the recovery continues.