Oil prices climbed in early Asian trade on Monday after the United States struck Iran for the first time in more than a month, prompting Tehran to retaliate against U.S. bases in Jordan.

At the time of writing, WTI front-month futures were trading at $85.46 per barrel, up 2.47%, while Brent front-month futures had risen 2.71% to $90.49 per barrel.

The latest round of escalation began on Sunday, when U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, located inside the Strait of Hormuz. According to a U.S. Central Command spokesperson, the attack came after the IRGC was observed "preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz."

CENTCOM later described the operation as a "limited, precise action against IRGC minelaying forces posing an imminent threat in the Strait of Hormuz."

The strike came only a week after President Trump claimed the U.S. had finished clearing mines from the Strait and warned that any ship or boat placing new mines would be "immediately and systematically destroyed."

Iran answered the Larak strike by launching ballistic missiles and drones at U.S. military installations in Jordan. The Jordanian Armed Forces said Monday morning that its air defenses had intercepted and destroyed eight missiles after they entered Jordanian airspace.

The IRGC confirmed it had targeted technical and maintenance infrastructure as well as fighter aircraft positions at two U.S. bases in Jordan, and warned that Iran would "forcefully respond" to every new U.S. strike.

The exchange leaves the oil market in a familiar position: trying to determine whether this is another contained round of escalation or the start of another major disruption to Gulf oil exports. The stakes are amplified by the Strait of Hormuz's role as the world's most important oil chokepoint: in normal conditions, roughly a fifth of globally traded petroleum liquids passes through the narrow waterway, which is why repeated mining attempts and attacks on tankers there reverberate through crude benchmarks worldwide.

Brent's move back above $90 is significant, but prices remain well below the levels seen during earlier phases of the war. Both benchmarks fell more than 4% last week, and the early 2% gain has done little to offset broader market losses.

Even so, traffic through the Strait remains far below pre-war levels, and there are growing fears that the recent selloff in oil may have outrun the reality of the current physical market.

Over the weekend, visible commodity-vessel traffic through the Strait had fallen to roughly five ships per day, and UK Maritime trade Operations issued a warning that another tanker transiting the Strait had been struck by an unknown projectile.

Meanwhile, CENTCOM provided an update on its blockade of Iranian ports: as of August 30, 83 commercial vessels had been redirected, three disabled, and two boarded.

The combination of low traffic, attacks on shipping, the U.S. blockade, and renewed IRGC attempts to mine the Strait suggests the geopolitical premium is unlikely to fade anytime soon.

The latest attacks are also notable for their timing, coming just as the U.S. was attempting to shift away from military operations toward economic pressure, with the U.S. Treasury launching what was described as an "economic D-Day."

For now, traders will be watching for any further signs of escalation, with a particularly close eye on oil flows through the Strait in the days ahead — along with whether the Treasury-led sanctions campaign, including the port blockade, begins to affect Iranian export volumes.

By Josh Owens for Oilprice.com