Oil prices surged nearly 7% on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed powerful retaliation for what he called a botched ‘surprise’ Iranian attack on American forces in Jordan, reversing hopes that a brief pause in hostilities might lead to peace talks between Washington and Tehran.

As of 1224 GMT, Brent crude rose $5.84, or 6.9%, to $89.93 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained $5.34, or 6.7%, to $84.60 per barrel.

The move added to volatility in a market already reacting to shifting headlines from the Middle East, where supply routes used to move a significant share of the world’s crude and fuel remain in focus. Concerns about wider regional instability were also heightened after Iran rejected Oman’s proposal for regional joint management of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Iran-backed Houthis were reportedly considering charging commercial vessels using the Bab el Mandeb passage in the Red Sea.

Data showed that only a small number of vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz this week, while five ships passed through Bab el Mandeb on Wednesday and 39 on Tuesday, the highest daily count since July 19, before the Houthis announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia.

Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said she remained doubtful that a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough was close. She told clients: “We remain exceedingly skeptical that we are on the brink of a major diplomatic breakthrough that will resolve the nuclear standoff that started the war five months ago or enable the normalization of maritime traffic.”

Bloomberg said the sharp rise in oil prices, following equally sharp losses earlier in the week, has renewed concerns that inflation could reaccelerate just as it had begun to slow more than economists expected. That uncertainty, Bloomberg added, has left traders unsure about what the Federal Reserve will announce after its two-day meeting on interest rates later in the day.

CME Group estimated a 34% probability that the Fed will raise its main interest rate, which would be the first increase in three years and could slow economic activity and affect demand.

Oilprice.com energy analyst Irina Slav said recent market swings and widespread optimism about the possibility of peace with Iran have distracted attention from warning signs in physical markets. She pointed to record refining margins, tightening fuel supplies and declining global inventories as signs of rising stress in the physical oil market rather than in futures trading.

Slav also said the market’s optimism was difficult to reconcile with five months of broken ceasefire deals, rhetoric, strikes and counterstrikes. She warned that because demand is outpacing supply for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, “more attention” should be paid to physical markets than to futures oil price charts.