At 5:05 a.m. Eastern Time today, the price of oil was $89.53 per barrel, using Brent as the benchmark. That is 45 cents higher than yesterday morning and about $16.84 above the level seen at the same time last year.

For readers tracking energy costs beyond the headline number, Brent is the main global reference used in markets and by many forecasters, so moves in this benchmark can shape how traders, refiners, and businesses read broader oil conditions.

Can oil prices rise further?

No one can predict the future direction of oil prices with certainty. A wide range of factors affects trading, but supply and demand remain the primary drivers. Prices can move sharply when concerns increase about an economic slowdown, conflict, or similar shocks.

How oil prices affect gas pump prices

The price at the gas pump reflects more than crude oil alone. It also includes refining costs, distribution through wholesalers, taxes, and the margin charged by the local station.

Crude oil remains the largest single factor in the final pump price, typically accounting for more than half of each gallon’s cost. When oil prices rise, gasoline prices usually follow quickly. When oil prices fall, gasoline prices often decline more slowly, a pattern commonly described as “rockets and feathers.”

That connection is why crude price changes matter to households even when they do not buy oil directly: they can filter into transportation, shipping, and other costs that show up in everyday spending.

The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

In an emergency, the U.S. maintains a stockpile of crude oil called the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its main purpose is to protect energy security when disasters occur, including sanctions, severe storm damage, or war. It can also help ease the impact of sudden price spikes when supply is disrupted.

The reserve is not a permanent solution. It is intended to provide immediate support for consumers and help critical parts of the economy, including key industries, emergency services, public transportation, and other essential systems, continue operating.

How oil and natural gas prices are connected

Oil and natural gas are both major energy sources. A significant move in oil prices can also affect natural gas indirectly. If oil prices rise, some industries may switch to natural gas for parts of their operations where that is possible, which can increase demand for natural gas.

Historical oil performance

Oil prices are commonly tracked using two benchmarks.

Brent crude is the main global oil benchmark.

West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, is the primary benchmark in North America.

Of the two, Brent is a better measure of global oil performance because it prices much of the crude traded around the world. It is also often the best reference for reviewing long-term oil trends. The U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its main reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

Looking across several decades, Brent prices have been highly volatile. Oil has seen sharp increases driven by wars and supply cuts, as well as steep declines tied to recessions and oversupply, often referred to as a glut. For example:

• The early 1970s saw the first major oil shock, when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and other countries during the Yom Kippur War.
• Prices fell in the mid-1980s amid weaker demand and the entry of more non-OPEC producers into the market.
• Prices surged again in 2008 on strong global demand before falling sharply during the global financial crisis.
• During the 2020 COVID lockdowns, oil demand collapsed, pushing prices below $20 per barrel.

Overall, oil prices have been far from stable over time. They have been heavily influenced by wars, recessions, OPEC decisions, changing energy policies and initiatives, and other factors.

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Frequently asked questions

The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about possible future supply and demand such as geopolitics and OPEC+ decisions. In the U.S., prices also respond to how supportive an administration is of drilling, since that can influence future supply. For example, in 2025 the Trump administration moved to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.

Oil prices update constantly while futures markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction in which people agree to buy or sell oil at a future date. As long as traders and companies are transacting contracts, the oil price changes.

Shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. It represents energy that has not yet been tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy it can produce, and the less likely oil prices are to spike as sharply because of greater supply.

When oil is expensive, everyday goods often become more costly. That can affect energy bills, such as heating and gas utilities, but it also reflects the logistics required to deliver goods to consumers. Shipping costs, for example, can raise grocery prices because it is more expensive to move products from warehouses and farms to store shelves.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com