The Commodities Feed: Oil Edges Higher Amid Persian Gulf Tanker Attacks

Oil & Companies News — 07/09/2026

Energy – Tanker strikes persist in the Persian Gulf

The oil market remains well supported, with little sign of peace between the US and Iran. The US struck several Iranian-linked tankers in response to Iran targeting US warships. Iran says it has also taken action against tankers navigating unauthorised routes, and now plans to enforce a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could put additional vessels in the Gulf of Oman at risk. The stakes are significant for global supply: the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil chokepoints, historically handling roughly a fifth of globally traded petroleum liquids, so any sustained disruption there would reverberate well beyond the region.

Despite the escalation, oil continues to flow. The US energy secretary said oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz is averaging a little more than 9m b/d, made possible by US Navy escorts.

Given the recent flare-up between Iran and the US, it is not surprising that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent over the last reporting week. Speculators bought 37,837 lots, leaving them with a net long of 261,435 lots as of last Tuesday. While fresh buying and short covering were both relatively sizeable, most of the increase came from short covering. Positioning data of this kind — reported weekly in exchange commitments-of-traders reports — is often watched as a gauge of how money managers are balancing geopolitical risk against fundamentals.

OPEC+ kept its output quotas unchanged for October, which comes as no surprise. The group had already announced increases this year that fully unwind voluntary cuts of 1.65m b/d. However, given ongoing disruptions in the Persian Gulf, most members will produce well below their quota.

While oil price action has been more modest with the latest developments in the Middle East, European gas prices have seen more upside. The TTF — the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark that serves as Europe's key gas price reference — was trading almost 4% higher in early morning trading today. LNG has not been flowing out as much as crude oil, leaving the gas market increasingly vulnerable heading into the 2026/27 heating season, when European demand typically peaks and storage draws begin.

Agriculture – Speculators jump into agri markets

Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry reported that grain and legume exports in the 2026/27 marketing year have fallen 14% year-on-year to 3.9mt as of 4 September. Corn exports nearly doubled from a year earlier to 1.7mt, while wheat shipments declined 40% to 1.8mt. The overall drop in exports was primarily driven by continued Russian attacks on Black Sea trade routes, which have been a recurring feature of the conflict and a persistent source of risk premium in wheat markets since the war began.

Russia's Agriculture Ministry says domestic grain harvests exceeded 110mt as of 4 September, up 10.5mt from the same period last year. Higher yields supported the increase, with wheat production reaching 83.5mt. Meanwhile, winter sowing advanced to 2.3m hectares, compared with 2.1m hectares a year earlier. Russia is one of the world's largest wheat exporters, so its harvest size is a key variable for global wheat supply balances.

France's Agriculture Ministry reported that 27% of the corn crop was rated good-to-excellent as of 31 August, highlighting the impact of this summer's heatwave across key growing regions. This was down from the previous week and well below the 62% recorded a year ago. France is the EU's largest corn producer, making its crop condition a bellwether for European Union-wide supply.

Speculative positioning remained supportive across grain markets. Money managers shifted to a net long position of 14,654 lots, the most bullish stance since May 2022. Black Sea tensions have seen speculators jump into the wheat market. In corn, speculative net longs rose by 54,549 lots to a record 431,062 lots, supported by expectations of a smaller US crop, the potential for lower European yields, and ongoing Black Sea disruptions. Similarly, the soybean net long increased by 42,929 lots to 241,183 lots, the highest level since August 2012. Record or multi-year-high net longs leave markets sensitive to any shift in sentiment, as crowded positioning can amplify price moves when funds adjust.

The sugar market also saw strong speculative buying, with the net long in No. 11 raw sugar growing by 36,685 lots to 243,467 lots — the highest since December 2022. Tightening supplies across major producing regions, including India, Thailand, and the EU, supported the move.

Source: ING