Natural gas-fired generation is adding another layer of demand to the upcoming winter, with power burn for the coming heating season forecast at 33.8 Bcf/d — up 5.5 Bcf/d from five winters ago — even as milder weather tempers heating needs, according to the American Gas Association (AGA).

The figures point to continued growth in the volume of natural gas consumed by the U.S. power sector during winter, a trend that has persisted even as recent seasons have featured milder conditions and softer heating demand. That persistence is what gives the numbers weight: power burn adds a demand component that carries through regardless of how mild a winter turns out, layered on top of heating use that rises and falls with the weather.

The AGA outlook includes several notable markers for the season ahead:

• Winter Henry Hub prices are seen lower year over year.
• Flexible supply available on peak-demand days reaches about 41%.
• The Henry Hub winter strip sits at $3.309.

Henry Hub, a pipeline hub in Louisiana, serves as the benchmark pricing point for U.S. natural gas futures, and the winter strip reflects the average of futures prices across the winter months. Power burn is measured in billions of cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).

Those markers give the season a measurable backdrop. The flexible-supply share indicates how much incremental volume can be drawn on when demand spikes on peak days, while the year-over-year price comparison and the $3.309 winter strip set where futures are priced heading into the heating season.

The AGA assessment was reported by Natural Gas Intelligence's Chris Newman on September 21, 2026.

Source: Natural Gas Intelligence