Rapidan Energy’s Global Gas Service expects the second phase of the LNG Canada export facility — a 14 million ton per year (Mt/y) expansion — to be sanctioned early next year, according to the firm’s latest assessment of the North American liquefied natural gas market.

However, Rapidan said the timeline for other LNG projects planned along North America’s west coast, in both Canada and Mexico, is less clear.

Among the west coast contenders, the 12 Mt/y Ksi Lisims floating LNG project proposed for British Columbia is possibly the closest to crossing the finish line and reaching a positive final investment decision (FID). Still, Rapidan said more work needs to be completed before the project can move to sanction.

Ksi Lisims LNG is a proposed floating liquefaction facility on Canada’s Pacific coast, developed by Western LNG with Rockies LNG and the Nisga’a Nation, in whose traditional territory the project would be sited near the mouth of the Nass River. Floating LNG designs place liquefaction equipment aboard vessels moored offshore rather than on land-based plant sites, an approach its developers have positioned as a way to shorten construction timelines and reduce onshore footprint compared with conventional terminal designs.

The commercialization challenge highlighted for Ksi Lisims reflects the broader dynamics facing proposed North American export projects: securing long-term offtake agreements with buyers is generally considered a prerequisite for reaching FID, since lenders and equity partners typically require committed revenues before committing capital. West coast projects such as Ksi Lisims would also offer shorter shipping distances to Asian markets than US Gulf Coast terminals, a route that avoids Panama Canal transit — a logistical advantage developers have cited as they compete for buyers in the Pacific basin.

LNG Canada, the country’s first large-scale LNG export terminal, is located in Kitimat, British Columbia. Its initial phase has a capacity of 14 Mt/y. Rapidan’s expectation that a second phase of equal size could be sanctioned early next year would make it one of the next major capacity additions on the continent’s west coast.

Rapidan Energy is a Washington, DC-based energy research and consulting firm. Its Global Gas Service provides analysis of global gas and LNG market trends, project timelines and policy developments.

The assessment of Canadian and Mexican west coast projects comes as proposed North American LNG developments more broadly compete for offtake contracts, equipment and labor in a global market shaped by energy security concerns and shifting trade flows.

This report draws on coverage by Jamison Cocklin of Natural Gas Intelligence, who covers the LNG market as Managing Editor, LNG. The original article was published at Natural Gas Intelligence.