Concerns intensified within the oil trading community on Thursday after officials reported "good signs" in the U.S.–Iran peace talks, even as Iran remained resolute on its nuclear development capabilities and control over the Strait of Hormuz — suggesting that the positive signals likely pertained only to marginal issues.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, with roughly a fifth of global oil consumption routinely passing through it on any given day. Any disruption to those flows has an outsized impact on supply chains stretching from the Gulf to Europe and Asia.

As of 0755 GMT, Brent crude gained just 48 cents to $79.93 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate added 29 cents to reach $75.51 per barrel. Despite the modest uptick, prices had still fallen approximately 8 percent over the course of the week.

For once, traders appeared to look past U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's characterization of "some good signs" emerging from the negotiations. Instead, market alarm was fueled by PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga, who noted that global oil inventories were being severely depleted as flows through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a trickle.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said, "Traders still remember the short-lived Memorandum of Understanding signed in June, so there is understandable anxiety that any new deal could prove equally fragile."

A central sticking point remains Washington's demand that Iran relinquish all control over Hormuz. Investors were therefore unsettled by reports of a proposed deal between Iran and Oman that would grant Tehran authority over ships attempting to transit the strategic waterway. According to CNBC, the plan would see Iran "ban U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait." Nations considered favorable to those countries would be required to pay compensation to use the waterway, and violators would face penalties amounting to 20 percent of the value of cargo aboard a ship.

In the previous session, Iran signaled that a peace agreement was unfeasible, declaring it would continue to develop nuclear weapons unless both the U.S. and Israel disarmed their own nuclear stockpiles.

Nevertheless, some optimism persisted that an agreement beneficial to both parties could still be reached. Saudi Aramco announced on Thursday that it would reduce the September official selling price for Arab Light crude by 50 cents per barrel, bringing it to a $2 discount against the regional benchmark. The move was motivated by expectations that more tankers would soon be able to pass through the Strait.

Meanwhile, the latest apparent casualty of the U.S.–Iran conflict was a Saudi Arabia–flagged oil tanker that the Iran-aligned Houthis claimed to have struck in the Red Sea using several ballistic missiles. As a result, vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ground to a halt — adding a second major maritime chokepoint to the list of disrupted routes, compounding the supply pressure already building around Hormuz.

Source: Ship & Bunker