Millions of American households are heading into winter facing sharply higher heating costs, as the seasonal shift from gasoline refining to home heating oil production passes this year's elevated oil prices on to consumers' heating bills.

The looming price increases — projected to be especially steep in parts of the Northeast — have already surfaced as an issue in Maine's U.S. Senate race, where Democratic opponent Troy Jackson has leveled harsh criticism at Sen. Susan Collins over the rising costs.

An analysis by Axios found that home heating oil prices have jumped by at least $2 per gallon compared with this time in 2025, rising from around $2.50 to $4.63 now, with prices projected to cross the $6 per gallon mark by deep winter. According to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), families that heat with oil could pay roughly 50% more this winter than last — up from the association's 31.3% projection in mid-September. The average cost of heating a home with oil is expected to rise by about $878, to more than $2,600 for the winter.

The drivers are the same ones behind higher gasoline prices at the pump: wars in the Middle East and, to a lesser extent, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which have depressed global output.

By comparison, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Winter Fuels Outlookhttps://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/perspectives/2026/10-winterfuels/article.php) projects that electricity bills will rise 4% nationally, while natural gas bills will fall 9% and propane spending will drop 3%. The EIA also expects a smaller increase for heating oil than NEADA, projecting a 21% rise in household expenditures. Both figures are projections, and actual bills will hinge on prices and how cold the winter turns out.

Hitting the Northeast

More than 80 percent of the nation's home heating oil is consumed in the Northeast, where some states lack robust natural gas pipelines, according to NEADA data. Overall, only about 3% of U.S. households use oil as their primary heat source, compared with roughly 45% relying on natural gas and 43% on electricity, according to the EIA's report.

Global oil markets have been strained by distribution patterns running through the Strait of Hormuz and, more recently, the Red Sea, where the Houthis are battling the Saudis. Refinery activity in Iran has declined as a result of U.S. embargoes on Iranian oil exports.

In practical terms, some families will cut back on other expenses or turn the heat down to potentially unsafe levels to cover their bills. That is likely to increase pressure on states to offer aid for heating oil, or to consider requiring utilities to offer discounts, affordability programs, or winter shutoff protections — measures that generally have not applied to independent heating-oil dealers.

States Move to Ease the Burden

Several governors have already acted. Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey declared a State of Energy Emergency over rising winter energy costs, unlocking nearly $150 million in relief and expanding assistance to middle-class households that heat with oil, as reported by [Axios. Rhode Island has declared an energy affordability emergency and directed $28 million in reserves toward winter electric-bill relief, while Maine Gov. Janet Mills announced $40 million in automatically applied electricity discounts for low-income residents. Outside of Massachusetts, the aid announced so far is aimed at electricity bills rather than heating-oil deliveries — the expense with the largest projected increase this winter.

Federal Assistance Under Strain

The affordability crunch is compounded by the Trump administration's attempts to dismantle the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP, the main federal program that helps low-income households pay heating and cooling bills. In April 2025, the administration fired LIHEAP's federal staff at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and proposed eliminating funding for the program.

LIHEAP is still running, but state administrators are operating without dedicated federal staff. HHS has said it "will carry out its responsibilities for funding Congress has made available" and that "HHS has the staff and capacity to distribute these funds in a timely manner." With the deep-winter price peak still ahead, how Congress funds the program — and whether states extend relief to oil-heated homes — will help determine how much support is available when heating-oil prices reach their projected winter high.

Terry H. Schwadron retired as a senior editor at The New York Times and previously served as Deputy Managing Editor at The Los Angeles Times and in leadership roles at The Providence (RI) Journal-Bulletin. He was part of a Pulitzer Gold Medal team in Los Angeles, and his team was part of several Pulitzers in New York.