Goldman Sachs Raises Brent and WTI Forecasts as Hormuz Shipping Risks Mount
Key Takeaways
- •Goldman Sachs lifted its Brent and WTI price forecasts by $5 per barrel for both December 2026 and December 2027.
- •The bank warned Brent could surpass $120 a barrel in 2027 if Gulf output remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.
- •The revision is driven by prolonged shipping disruptions and risk around the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of globally traded oil.
- •Hormuz disruptions affect not only crude but also liquefied natural gas and refined products, spreading risk premiums across energy markets.
- •Bank price revisions can influence hedging behavior among airlines, shippers, and other fuel-intensive industries.
Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price forecasts by $5 a barrel for both December 2026 and December 2027, citing prolonged shipping disruptions in the Middle East.
The investment bank also warned that Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel in 2027 if Gulf oil output remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.
The revision reflects mounting risks around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of globally traded oil passes. Disruptions to shipping through the strait have historically heightened concerns about supply from major Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter. Because Hormuz carries not only crude but also liquefied natural gas and refined product shipments from the Gulf, elevated risk premiums in the region tend to ripple across a broad range of energy markets rather than crude alone.
Brent is the benchmark used to price roughly two-thirds of the world's internationally traded crude oil, while WTI serves as the main U.S. benchmark. Analyst forecasts from major banks such as Goldman Sachs are closely watched by energy markets and commodity traders as indicators of expected supply-demand conditions, and bank price revisions can influence hedging behavior among airlines, shippers, and other fuel-intensive industries.
Goldman's updated outlook hinges on the duration of the Middle East disruptions: the $5-per-barrel increase for both December 2026 and December 2027 reflects its assessment that shipping risks around the region will persist, while the possibility of Brent exceeding $120 in 2027 is contingent on Gulf production remaining significantly curtailed relative to pre-war levels. Market participants are likely to watch subsequent OPEC+ decisions, official statements on Gulf production and shipping traffic through Hormuz, and any further revisions to bank forecasts as signals of whether the risk premium endures.
The forecast was reported by the Economic Times on September 8, 2026.
Source: Economic Times Markets
