NewsCommodities & ForexGold and Silver Rebound as US-Iran Conflict Escalates to Second Strategic Chokepoint

Gold and Silver Rebound as US-Iran Conflict Escalates to Second Strategic Chokepoint

Author: Mining.com·

Key Takeaways

  • Gold reached an intraday high of $4,171 an ounce in New York before easing to $4,137.16 by early afternoon.
  • September silver climbed as much as 4.3% to $61.27, outperforming gold and lowering the gold-to-silver ratio to about 69.
  • The US-Iran conflict and Houthi actions raised concerns over potential disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
  • Brent crude briefly traded above $95 a barrel, while WTI rose 2.9% to $86.78.
  • Mining shares advanced with the metals rally, including an 8.1% gain for US-traded shares of Zijin Mining.
Gold and Silver Rebound as US-Iran Conflict Escalates to Second Strategic Chokepoint

Gold and silver prices surged on Wednesday as a sharp escalation in the US-Iran conflict sent oil prices soaring and drove investors back toward safe-haven assets. The rally came despite long-term borrowing costs sitting at their highest levels in years—a factor that would typically weigh on precious metals.

Gold for August delivery reached a session high of $4,171 an ounce in New York, up 2.3%. September silver climbed as much as 4.3% to $61.27, just two sessions after touching an eight-month low. By early afternoon, both metals had eased from their peaks, with gold trading at $4,137.16 and silver at $59.86.

The gold-to-silver ratio fell to approximately 69 ounces of silver per ounce of gold, down from just under 71 on Monday, reflecting silver's relative outperformance this week. The ratio, watched by traders as a mean-reversion signal, suggests silver looked cheap relative to gold entering the week. Platinum and palladium also pared their early gains.

The US-Iran conflict has now widened into a second week of renewed fighting, which has killed four American soldiers. President Trump warned that the US would "bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant" around Tehran each time Iran attacks shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian outlet Tasnim responded with threats against energy infrastructure across the region.

Yemen's Houthis, allied with Tehran, declared an embargo on vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb strait, leaving oil markets confronting potential blockages at two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of global oil consumption, while the Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea to the Suez Canal, a vital artery for Europe-bound crude and refined products. Brent crude briefly exceeded $95 a barrel, while WTI rose 2.9% to $86.78.

Wednesday's rush into bullion occurred even as 30-year Treasury yields held above 5% for the longest sustained period since the financial crisis. That same combination of war-driven energy inflation and rising rate expectations made June gold's worst month since 2008 and revived rate-hike speculation as recently as last week. Swap traders currently assign only about a 10% probability to a hike at the Fed's meeting this month, though at least one increase remains priced in by year-end.

"The recent rebound feels mostly flow-driven, sparked by a bit of dip-buying and sheer relief that the $4,000-an-ounce floor held," said Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, quoted by Bloomberg. "However, I don't expect this to be the start of a new structural trend. Energy prices are just starting to pick up again, and that concern will ultimately cap the upside."

Mining Stocks Respond

The precious metals rally energized a mining complex that, on a median basis, is still trading roughly a third below its 52-week highs. Mining equities tend to amplify underlying metal moves due to their fixed cost structures, which magnify both gains and losses. US-traded shares of China's Zijin Mining led major producers with an 8.1% gain. Newmont (NYSE: NEM) added 3.1%, and Barrick Mining (NYSE: B) rose 2.4%. Even after Wednesday's advance, Barrick remains approximately 32% below its high of the past year. The company this week acquired a 9.9% stake in Kingfisher Metals, a bet on British Columbia's Golden Triangle.

Agnico Eagle (NYSE: AEM), up 3.5%, remains the hardest hit among big-cap precious metals stocks, trading more than 40% below its 52-week peak. Among silver producers, Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE) climbed 3.8% and Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL) gained 2.7%, though the pair still sit 43% and 54% below their respective highs.

Despite the bounce, gold remains about 26% below January's record near $5,600 and is down 4% in 2026, though still up more than 20% over the past 12 months. Silver is off 16% year-to-date and worth half of January's record of $121.64 an ounce, but its 52% gain over 12 months remains the strongest performance of any precious metal.