Asian Metals Market Update for 10th August 2026

By Chintan Karnani

Chintan Karnani, metals market analyst writing for GoldSeek, asserts that long-term bottoms have been established in both gold and silver. He projects spot gold could reach $10,000 within the next two years, provided it maintains a floor above $3,840. Similarly, he sees spot silver potentially surpassing $200.00 over the same period if it holds above $52.00.

The analyst attributes this outlook to anticipated interest rate cuts at upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, predicting rates will approach zero before the end of the current presidential term in January 2029. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver, a relationship that has historically supported precious metals prices during monetary easing cycles. He further claims that U.S. economic data releases will be managed to justify rate reductions in the coming months.

Karnani states he has maintained a bullish stance in his column even following the January market crash, and intends to continue projecting bullish views on gold and silver for the next year. He outlines a specific condition under which his outlook would be invalidated: gold and silver prices would re-enter a bearish phase and fall below their July 2026 lows only if U.S. stocks plunged for fifteen consecutive trading sessions — a scenario he considers highly unlikely until after the U.S. Senate elections.

Macro and Geopolitical Commentary

Karnani notes that while few are currently anticipating a recession or depression within the next two years, he expresses the view that a global economic downturn during that period would not surprise him.

The analyst discusses what he describes as a reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape. He references Trump returning to trade tariff policies, with India and China reportedly facing 100% tariffs. He draws parallels between Trump's approach and the historical East India Company, citing Japan and Venezuela as already "captured," with Cuba "next in line." He characterizes Nepal and Bangladesh as "puppet governments" and claims Pakistan "has been sold to Trump." These characterizations reflect the analyst's personal geopolitical views.

Regarding industrial metals, Karnani observes that copper and non-ferrous metals have risen this year, and he suggests a hyper-bullish outlook may signal a significant bubble within eighteen months that could also affect precious metals. Copper, widely tracked as a bellwether for global industrial activity and sometimes called "Dr. Copper" for its sensitivity to economic conditions, has seen increased attention alongside the energy transition's demand for electrification metals. He argues that extreme debt-fueled business expansion with long gestation periods warrants serious reconsideration.

Gold Demand Trends

On the demand side, Karnani reports that per capita gold demand is expected to rise in nearly every country. He highlights that Europe and the United States — regions where retail investors have historically under-allocated to gold — are seeing monthly increases in physical gold investment. Central banks have also been consistent net purchasers of gold in recent years, adding a structural layer of demand that complements retail and institutional buying.

The analyst notes dip-buying activity and expects this pattern to continue for the next two weeks. He also points to India's festival season, running from the last week of August through the end of November, as a significant driver of gold and silver demand. India consistently ranks among the world's top two gold-consuming nations alongside China, making its seasonal demand patterns closely watched by global metals markets. He anticipates silver sales in all forms will outpace gold by a multiple during the festive period.

Spot Silver Technical Levels

• Current Market Price: $63.85
• 100-Day Simple Moving Average: $60.63
• Key Intraday Resistance: $65.40 and $68.29
• Key Intraday Support: $62.90 and $61.80

Intraday View: Karnani states that spot silver will rise quickly if it trades above $63.92, targeting $65.41, $67.78, and higher. He specifies that spot silver must close above $61.99 on a daily basis to remain in a bullish zone through Thursday's close.

Silver's price behavior reflects its dual role as both a precious and an industrial metal. According to the Silver Institute, industrial applications — including solar photovoltaic cells, electronics, and automotive components — typically account for roughly half of total annual silver demand, meaning the metal can respond to both monetary policy shifts and industrial cycle trends.

He advises low-risk traders to focus on intraday trading in silver (spot, futures, and ETFs) through the end of August, and expects large gap-up openings at the Singapore open each day during that period. For low-risk investors, he recommends a systematic investment plan (SIP) — whether in physical metal or ETFs — as the preferred approach. He cautions that derivative trading in silver is not suitable for low-risk participants and urges individuals to assess their own risk profiles before engaging in silver futures on any global commodity exchange.

Notes and Methodology

All views in this report are intraday unless otherwise specified. "Holds" refers to holds on a daily closing basis. Prices and quotes are denominated in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. News sources are drawn from Reuters newswires, and technical analysis is conducted using TradingView software.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas presented are described as independent viewpoints intended for collective learning and academic purposes, with no commercial benefit to the author. They should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are advised to apply their own judgment and consult a financial advisor before acting on any recommendations. The author states he is not responsible for any profits or losses resulting from actions taken based on these ideas.

Disclosure: Karnani states that he trades on India's MCX commodity exchange and holds open positions in MCX commodity futures. He does not trade CME futures or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

Follow on X (Twitter): @chintankarnani