Gold (GC=F) December futures opened at $4,408.20 per troy ounce on Friday, August 14, 2026, down 0.3% from Thursday's closing price. The price edged higher through the morning, reaching $4,419.60 by 7:54 a.m. ET.

The metal has opened above $4,400 throughout the week and currently shows a monthly gain of more than 10%, as cooling inflation reports — including word that July PPI inflation cooled to 4.7% — have led many to scale back expectations of a rate increase by the Federal Reserve next month. The Producer Price Index measures the prices U.S. producers receive for their output, and it is watched alongside consumer-level measures as a gauge of pipeline price pressure.

According to the most recent figures from CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 69.4% chance the Fed will hold rates steady in September, while 30.6% of economists still expect an increase. One month ago the picture was markedly different: 42% expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged in September, 50% expected a 25-basis-point increase, and 8% thought the Fed would raise rates by 50 basis points. FedWatch derives those probabilities from trading in fed funds futures, so the readings shift with market pricing in real time; the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's rate-setting body, is the decision point they refer to.

Gold is responding positively to the rising "no-hike" majority because precious metals do not pay interest. When interest rates rise, yield-bearing assets such as bonds become relatively more attractive, raising the opportunity cost of holding a metal that generates no income; expectations of steadier rates reduce that drag.

Gold price performance

The opening price of August gold futures on Friday, August 14, 2026, was down 0.3% compared with Thursday's opening price. Measured against previous periods, the gold price has moved as follows:

• One week ago: +3.1%
• One month ago: +10.3%
• One year ago: +31.7%

On January 29, gold's one-year gain was 95.6%. Rolling one-year comparisons shrink automatically as earlier gains fall out of the 12-month measurement window.

How much gold should you own?

A gold investment can add stability and inflation protection to a portfolio, but it can also dilute gains when stock prices are rising quickly. Finding the right balance between gold's diversification benefits and the growth potential of other assets can be challenging — and even the experts are divided on how to strike it. Below, five experts explain their recommended gold allocations, which range from 0% to 20%.

No gold: the trade-off is too high

Robert R. Johnson, professor at Creighton University's Heider College of Business, does not advocate gold investing. In his words: "while having a small position in precious metals may dampen portfolio volatility in the short-run, the tradeoff between slightly dampened volatility and the lost long-term return is certainly not a prudent one, particularly for Gen Z/millennials with long investing time horizons."

2% to 5% allocation, depending on the situation

Brett Elliott, director of content and SEO at American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX), recommends setting an allocation that aligns with an investor's goals. Growth-oriented investors may be comfortable with an allocation of 10% or 15%, according to Elliott, while income investors will prefer a smaller position because gold provides no yield. A 2% to 5% gold allocation can provide some resiliency without an excessive drag on income potential.

5% to 8% allocation

Blake McLaughlin, executive vice president at Axcap Ventures, said historical data support a gold allocation of 5% to 8%. "Gold may not offer the outsized return potential of private investments, but the metal holds a set of attributes that are increasingly hard to ignore," according to McLaughlin. Those attributes include the metal's resilience amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical unrest.

5% to 15% allocation

Thomas Winmill, portfolio manager at Midas Funds, believes most investors will benefit from a long-term gold allocation of 5% to 15%. Winmill specifically advocates investing in gold mining companies through a mutual fund.

Risk tolerance and the current mix of financial versus hard assets can guide investors to an appropriate allocation, according to Winmill:

• Risk tolerance: Keep the allocation percentage low if you tend to panic in volatile cycles.
• Financial versus hard assets: Financial assets are stocks and bonds. Hard assets include tangible items such as real estate, gold, collectibles, classic cars, and equipment. Investors with no home equity whose wealth is primarily in financial assets can set their gold allocation higher. If, on the other hand, the family home is paid for and worth more than the stock portfolio, gold investing may not be necessary.

20% allocation

Vince Stanzione, CEO and founder at First Information, recommends a 20% gold allocation, specifically in physical gold or a gold ETF. Stanzione argues for higher exposure to gold as a wealth protection strategy. As he says, "gold keeps with inflation and gold retains its purchasing power," while paper currencies are devaluing around the world.

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Source: Yahoo Finance