Gold Forecasts Rise for End of 2026 as Analysts See Path to $5,000

Gold has rebounded 13% over the past month and was trading at $4,628 per ounce on August 26, reaching its most overbought level since January’s all-time high. With the precious metal on track for its largest monthly green candle since September 1999, analysts have been revising their gold price predictions for the end of 2026.

Several financial institutions and banks have recently updated their forecasts for gold. Many have kept a constructive view on the metal, citing continued support from central-bank purchases, interest-rate trends, and persistent global economic risks. At the same time, some analysts have said the rally has accelerated faster than expected and that volatility is likely to remain elevated, which is keeping attention on whether the latest move can hold as rates and fiscal concerns continue to shift.

Gold price 1-month chart. Source: TradingView

Precious metals analyst sees a path toward $5,000

Bernard Dahdah, precious metals analyst at Natixis, said gold prices appear to be back on track toward $5,000 an ounce after months of correction.

On Tuesday, August 25, Dahdah said the latest rally began in early August after weaker economic data led markets to reassess interest-rate expectations. According to Dahdah, markets had already priced in at least two rate hikes, but expectations have since shifted, with traders now pricing in just one rate cut in December.

He also pointed to the U.S. Treasury’s plan to double its purchases of 10- and 30-year bonds to $4 billion, as U.S. government debt surpassed $40 trillion. Dahdah said concerns about the effect of elevated long-term yields on mortgage and real estate markets have increased demand for gold as a hedge against market instability.

Dahdah raised his year-end gold price forecast to $5,000 an ounce from a previous target of $4,600.

Banks update gold targets for 2026

Other major banks have also raised their gold forecasts. Citigroup increased its zero-to-three-month gold price target to $4,800 an ounce on August 24, while its 12-month target remains $5,000.

Morgan Stanley said on August 20 that gold had reached its fourth-quarter target ahead of schedule and expects prices to rise above $5,000 an ounce in 2027, while warning that the rally is likely to remain volatile.

“Gold has reached our Q4 forecast of $4,450/oz faster than expected… We see a path to >$5,000/oz in 2027 but with scope for volatility too,” analyst Amy Gower wrote.

The bank also said gold has begun to decouple from long-term real yields. It noted that the metal rose in early August even as long-dated yields remained broadly flat. According to Morgan Stanley, gold “appears to be pricing the fiscal concerns behind higher yields more than the yield level itself.”

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