France Raises Wine Output Forecast to 36.7 Million Hectoliters Despite Weak 2026 Harvest
Key Takeaways
- •France's farm ministry lifted its wine production forecast to 36.7 million hectoliters from the 34.9 million estimated in October.
- •The projected output would exceed last year's harvest, the poorest of this century, yet remain 10% below the 2021-2025 average.
- •The upgrade was driven mainly by better-than-expected yields in Languedoc-Roussillon and Charentes, which together account for roughly half of national output.
- •Champagne production is still forecast to fall 38% from 2025 after frost, hail, drought and summer heatwaves, with the industry lobby's next annual release decision set to determine how many bottles reach the market.
- •Regional forecasts diverge sharply, with Burgundy-Beaujolais seen down 22% and Loire down 7%, while Languedoc-Roussillon is projected to rise 25% and Bordeaux 10% from 2025.
PARIS — France has raised its forecast for this year's wine production after yields proved better than expected in several major regions, although the 2026 harvest remains on course to be one of the weakest on record.
In its latest estimate, the country's farm ministry projected output of 36.7 million hectoliters, up from the 34.9 million hectoliters estimated in October. According to the ministry's monthly report, that would now place production above last year's harvest — the poorest this century — while still leaving it 10% below the 2021-2025 average.
The upward revision was driven mainly by higher-than-expected yields in Languedoc-Roussillon and Charentes, which together account for roughly half of national output, as well as in Champagne and the South-East. France is the world's second-largest wine producer, after Italy, a standing that gives its annual harvest figures weight in the global wine market.
Agreste, the ministry's statistics service, said the 2026 crop had been hit by a decline in vineyard area resulting from a vineyard reduction plan, while summer heat and drought depressed yields, particularly in northern wine regions.
Even with this month's upgrade, Champagne production was still expected to fall 38% from 2025 after frost, hail, drought and summer heatwaves. The number of Champagne bottles released to the market each year is decided by the industry lobby, which takes into account the region's output alongside other parameters such as world demand. With the region's crop down sharply, the lobby's next annual decision on permitted releases will be the mechanism through which the smaller harvest translates into bottles reaching the market.
Burgundy-Beaujolais output was forecast to drop 22% from last year, with Loire production down 7%. In contrast, Languedoc-Roussillon output was seen rising 25% from the previous year's very weak harvest after late-summer rains limited drought damage. Last month, the farm ministry had expected an increase of just 2% in the region.
Bordeaux production was forecast to rise 10% from 2025 but remain 11% below the five-year average, partly due to vineyard removals.
Because the farm ministry revises the forecast monthly, the national figure could still shift in upcoming estimates. A hectoliter is 100 liters, equivalent to about 133 standard wine bottles. — Reuters
Source: BusinessWorld
