Low storage levels and a shut Strait of Hormuz are keeping global gas markets on edge, according to Rystad Energy's short-term outlook published 31 August 2026. Europe is pulling in extra cargoes ahead of winter, Asia remains hostage to Middle East risk, and the US market moves on fundamentals alone.

Dutch TTF prices rose to €64.50 per MWh as European storage sits at 63% full — well below the 75.7% recorded at the same point last year. The gap leaves Europe well short of the EU's regulatory storage target of 90% by 1 November, making the storage refill race a defining feature of the pre-winter market. The shortfall is driving Europe to attract additional LNG volumes ahead of the heating season, with TTF — the continent's benchmark hub price — serving as the pull signal for spot cargoes.

East Asian LNG prices edged up to $22.66 per MMBtu as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz persist. The strait normally carries roughly a fifth of globally traded LNG, chiefly from Qatar and the UAE, so its closure directly constrains supply available to import-dependent buyers. The disruption has cut LNG imports by 10 million tonnes across Japan, China and South Korea, leaving the region's demand hostage to Middle East risk.

In the United States, Henry Hub held steady near $2.80 per MMBtu, with US gas storage on track to reach a 10-year high. Abundant domestic supply and limited export disruption have insulated the American market from the price premiums seen abroad. Unlike Europe and Asia, the American market continues to trade on domestic fundamentals alone — though the trajectory of global demand for US LNG cargoes remains a variable worth watching as the heating season approaches.

Source: Rystad Energy, via Hellenic Shipping News