The U.S. dollar enters the North American session on the defensive, trading lower against all of the major currencies. The steepest declines are against the Australian and New Zealand dollars — both commodity-linked currencies — which are up 0.77% and 0.67%, respectively. Against the euro, yen and pound, the dollar is down roughly 0.20% to 0.30% as the trading day gets underway.

Today's Kickstart video examines the key technical levels driving the major currency pairs and outlines the bias, risk and targets — three elements every trader should have in view as the new session gets underway.

Treasury yields settle mid-range after a volatile week

U.S. Treasury yields are mixed and little changed at the open, with rates generally sitting near the middle of this week's volatile trading ranges.

The volatility has been most pronounced at the long end of the curve. The 30-year yield surged to 5.337% on Tuesday, its highest level since June 2007, before reversing sharply after action from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its longer-dated bond buybacks, from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, providing additional liquidity support to the long end of the Treasury market. The Treasury had reintroduced regular buybacks in 2024, its first such program in more than two decades, as a tool for managing liquidity in benchmark securities. The 30-year yield subsequently fell to a low of 5.178% yesterday before moving back higher, and at 5.24% this morning it sits near the middle of this week's range.

Moves at the long end matter beyond the Treasury market itself, since long-term yields help set borrowing costs across the wider economy, from mortgage rates to corporate funding.

The 10-year yield has seen similar volatility, trading from a high of 4.759% to a low of 4.633% this week. It currently stands at 4.692%, also near the middle of its weekly range.

At the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year yield has been much more contained, trading between 4.176% and 4.202% this week. The current yield of 4.185% keeps it within that relatively narrow range.

The 2-year remains particularly sensitive to expectations for Fed policy. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting, with the probability around 34%. That keeps the September decision very much in play, particularly after the minutes from the July meeting showed a more hawkish tilt among policymakers. Incoming data, starting with today's August flash PMIs, provides the next scheduled readings against which those expectations will be reassessed.

U.S. stocks set to rebound after Thursday's selloff

U.S. equities are on pace for a solid rebound at the open following yesterday's sharp declines. The major indices came under broad selling pressure Thursday as rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices and weakness in Walmart weighed on investor sentiment. The Dow fell 703.84 points, or 1.3%; the S&P 500 declined 66.82 points, or 0.9%; and the Nasdaq Composite lost 263.92 points, or 1.0%.

Futures are pointing higher this morning:

• Dow Jones: +293 points
• S&P 500: +32 points
• Nasdaq 100: +223 points

The gains point to some dip buying after yesterday's broad-based selloff, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the rebound.

Oil steady as Iran's president signals openness to ending the war

Crude oil is trading marginally higher at $86.84, despite comments from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian suggesting a desire to bring the war to an end. Pezeshkian said "the war must end at some point," adding that it would be better to end it now while Iran is in what he described as a position of power and dignity.

The comments point toward a preference for a negotiated end to the conflict, but geopolitical risks remain elevated, keeping the oil market sensitive to developments involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly a fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption transits the strait, one of the world's most important oil chokepoints.

Gold, silver and bitcoin rally as the dollar weakens

Precious metals are sharply higher to start the day. Gold is up $78.41, or 1.74%, at $4,596.86, while silver is up 2.53% at $69.78. The weaker U.S. dollar is providing support to both metals.

Bitcoin is also surging, trading up 5.06% at $76,698, extending its strong rebound and adding to the broader move into alternative assets as the dollar weakens.

Economic calendar: Canada retail sales, U.S. flash PMIs, European consumer confidence

The economic calendar has several releases that could generate some volatility later today.

In Canada, the focus will be on June retail sales, a monthly gauge of consumer spending. Headline retail sales are expected to rise 0.4%, slowing from 1.0% previously, while core retail sales are expected to increase 0.4%, down from 1.2%.

In the U.S., attention will turn to the August flash PMI data. Manufacturing PMI is expected at 53.9, unchanged from the prior month, while services PMI is expected to ease to 54.0 from 54.6. Both readings would nevertheless remain comfortably above the 50 level separating expansion from contraction. As preliminary estimates, the flash figures can be revised in the final releases later in the month.

In Europe, consumer confidence is expected to remain unchanged at -16.3. Earlier flash PMI data showed eurozone business activity continuing to expand in August, led by improving manufacturing activity.