Morning Kickstart: Dollar Mixed, Stocks Rebound and Oil Retreats Amid Iran Uncertainty
Key Takeaways
- •WTI crude fell 1.03% to $90.55 and traded between its 100-hour moving average near $90.00 and its 200-hour moving average near $90.59, leaving neither buyers nor sellers with a clear short-term technical edge.
- •Oil eased as traders gave more weight to President Trump's pledge that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections than to Pentagon preparations for a roughly three-day campaign.
- •U.S. stock futures signaled a higher opening led by the Nasdaq 100, up 222 points, while major European indices gained roughly 1% and Treasury yields rose modestly, with the 2-year up 2.88 basis points to 4.7848%.
- •The U.S. dollar posted its largest gain against the Japanese yen, with USDJPY up 0.24% at 158.24, and its largest decline against the Australian dollar, with AUDUSD up 0.32% at 0.6977.
- •Canada is expected to report 9,200 job gains with unemployment rising to 6.5%, while the preliminary University of Michigan October sentiment index is forecast at 47.6, down from 48.1, with inflation expectations previously at 4.6% for one year and 3.4% for five years.
InvestingLive's morning technical review takes a closer look at the three major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD — from a technical perspective. For each pair, the review outlines the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either buyers or sellers more control.
The U.S. dollar started the North American session mixed and little changed, strongest against the Japanese yen and weakest against the Australian dollar, with only modest moves against the other majors. U.S. stock futures pointed higher, led by the Nasdaq 100, while crude oil slipped back between its 100- and 200-hour moving averages. Treasury yields edged higher, and gold, silver, copper and Bitcoin were all advancing.
Middle East headlines pull in different directions
The Middle East remains a headline-driven market, with military preparations on one side and diplomatic discussions on the other.
Overnight coverage from InvestingLive reported that the Pentagon has prepared options for a roughly three-day campaign against Iran. President Trump, however, has rejected several earlier strike proposals and publicly pledged that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections. Oil eased as traders gave more weight to that pledge than to the military preparations. The region is central to global crude supply, which is why both the military preparations and the diplomatic signals are being treated as supply-risk headlines by oil traders.
Trump also said discussions with Iran are productive, according to InvestingLive's preview of today's events.
What happens next is something nobody knows with confidence. Headlines can change quickly, and so can the market reaction. For traders, the task is to identify the technical levels, define and limit risk, and watch which side can sustain a break.
The U.S. dollar picture
The dollar's largest moves were against the yen and the Australian dollar:
| Pair | Level | Change | Dollar stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.1211 | up 0.02% | Marginally lower |
| USDJPY | 158.24 | up 0.24% | Largest gain |
| GBPUSD | 1.3224 | Flat | Essentially unchanged |
| USDCHF | 0.8310 | down 0.05% | Modestly lower |
| USDCAD | 1.4230 | up 0.04% | Modestly higher |
| AUDUSD | 0.6977 | up 0.32% | Largest decline |
| NZDUSD | 0.5612 | up 0.04% | Modestly lower |
The three major pairs traded the following session ranges:
- EURUSD: 1.1206 to 1.1243 — a 37-pip range
- USDJPY: 157.77 to 158.41 — a 64-pip range
- GBPUSD: 1.3223 to 1.3250 — a 27-pip range
The pound's range is particularly narrow in absolute terms. The next catalyst could give traders a shove, but the important question is whether the price can break a technical level and stay beyond it.
U.S. stock futures point higher
Futures implied a higher opening, with technology shares leading:
- Dow industrial average: up 38 points
- S&P 500: up 30 points
- Nasdaq 100: up 222 points
The stronger opening indications give buyers an opportunity, and the next test is whether they can build on those gains once cash trading gets underway.
Crude oil retreats between its hourly moving averages
WTI crude futures traded at $90.55, down $0.94, or 1.03%. Yesterday's rally stalled within the swing resistance area between $92.29 and $93.48 — buyers had their shot at that zone but could not sustain the move higher. Today's decline has returned the price to the area between the 100-hour moving average near $90.00 and the 200-hour moving average near $90.59.
The 100- and 200-hour moving averages are among the most widely watched short-term trend markers, and with the price sitting between them, neither side holds a clear technical edge. Those moving averages now give traders nearby levels to lean against:
- A move above the 200-hour moving average — and staying above it — would give buyers more control. The next upside targets include the 38.2% retracement near $91.60, followed by the $92.29–$93.48 swing area.
- A move below the 100-hour moving average — and staying below it — would strengthen the sellers' hand. Downside references include $88.72 and the 50% midpoint near $86.93.
Between the moving averages, the market is searching for its next shove. Price action can help define the bias rather than trying to predict the next geopolitical headline.
Treasury yields edge higher
U.S. yields were modestly higher, with the largest increase at the short end:
- 2-year: 4.7848%, up 2.88 basis points
- 5-year: 5.0067%, up 1.57 basis points
- 10-year: 5.2463%, up 1.33 basis points
- 30-year: 5.6196%, up 1.26 basis points
European stocks advance
European equities were higher across the major markets:
- Germany's DAX: 25,105.78, up 298.80 points, or 1.20%
- France's CAC: 7,796.30, up 66.60 points, or 0.86%
- UK's FTSE 100: 10,554.13, up 112.54 points, or 1.08%
- Spain's Ibex: 19,122.70, up 193.80 points, or 1.02%
- Italy's FTSE MIB: 49,822.23, up 524.34 points, or 1.06%
Metals and Bitcoin move higher
- Spot gold: $4,184.99, up $51.30, or 1.24%
- Silver: $60.425, up $1.2445, or 2.10%
- Copper futures: $6.6930, up $0.1245, or 1.90%
- Bitcoin: $82,777, up $1,101, or 1.35%
Canadian jobs report due at 8:30 a.m. ET
Canadian employment is expected to increase by 9,200, following last month's decline of 41,700, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.5% from 6.4 Employment is one of the indicators most closely tied to Bank of Canada policy expectations, which is why the report can move the Canadian dollar and, by extension, USDCAD.
Last month's breakdown showed part-time employment down 35,900 and full-time employment down 5,800, meaning most of the job losses came from part-time work. Traders will want to see whether those jobs return and whether full-time hiring can rebound as well; a headline gain supported by full-time employment would be more encouraging than one driven entirely by part-time jobs. Wages and labor-force participation will also help explain the report.
For USDCAD, watch the details first, then the price reaction. Does the release give buyers or sellers enough momentum to break a technical level and stay beyond it?
U.S. consumer sentiment and inflation expectations at 10:00 a.m. ET
The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October is expected at 47.6, versus 48.1 previously. As a preliminary reading, it is the first estimate for the month and can be revised in the final release.
The inflation expectations readings deserve attention alongside the headline sentiment number. Last month, 1-year inflation expectations were 4.6% and 5-year inflation expectations were 3.4% — both well above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. The one-year reading gives a sense of the price pressures consumers expect in the near term, while the five-year measure provides a longer-term perspective on whether consumers expect inflation to remain elevated.
A rise in expectations could complicate the inflation outlook, while a decline would be more encouraging — particularly with consumers already facing high borrowing costs and volatile energy prices. Watch how Treasury yields and the dollar respond to the combination of confidence and inflation expectations.
In the Kickstart video, the review of the three major currency pairs aims to identify who has control, where that view would change, and what comes next if buyers or sellers can extend the move.
