A change of government in Colombia is set to open the door to a revival of the country's oil and gas sector. Following a four-year ban on oil and gas exploration imposed under former leftist president Gustavo Petro, a new right-wing administration is keen to open Colombia's oil and gas reserves to foreign investors. The stakes for the economy are considerable: oil is one of Colombia's principal exports and a major source of government revenue, and the country has in recent years faced declining proven reserves, adding urgency to the debate over whether to open new exploration frontiers. But even as mining and oil companies stand ready to pour billions of dollars into the sector, the country's political institutions may not yet be prepared for the influx.

Fossil fuel companies are expected to inject as much as $4 billion into Colombia's oil and gas sector over the next four years. While such an inflow of capital and economic development would be extremely welcome, the new administration will have to move quickly to make good on those deals. According to Reuters, the government must remove regulatory hurdles left over from the previous administration and address critical security concerns that could deter prospective investors.

The prior administration had sought to position Colombia as a leader in the global green energy transition, freezing new oil and gas exploration and banning hydraulic fracturing altogether, among other decarbonization-oriented policies. Those goals, however commendable, were not entirely feasible in the national context: as of 2024, Colombia still derived 75 percent of its energy from fossil fuels. The public has since embraced the opposite approach, electing a president who promised on the campaign trail to do "all the fracking possible."

"We need to unblock all the bottlenecks that are closely tied to prior consultations, administrative decisions and delays in environmental licensing," Luz Stella Murgas, president of Colombia's natural gas association Naturgas, recently told Reuters. The "prior consultations" she references are a constitutionally mandated process in Colombia requiring the state to consult indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities before approving resource projects on or near their territories — a requirement that has repeatedly slowed or halted extractive projects in the past.

Colombia's Congress, however, is currently divided, complicating efforts to change legislation related to fracking allowances, royalties, tax structures, and permitting processes. President Abelardo de la Espriella may bypass congressional approval by using decrees to simplify and expedite permitting, but that approach also carries the risk of legal challenge.

There is also no guarantee that foreign mining and oil interests will commit once the exploration ban is lifted and new policies are in place. "It's not an on and off button," political risk analyst Sergio Guzmán told the nonpartisan global news outlet Semafor. Investors will want to see "long-term fiscal certainty," Guzmán added.

Politicians will have to act fast to ensure their ambitions to revitalize the oil and gas sector do not meet the same fate as the previous administration's green energy agenda. "The measures have to be comprehensive, aggressive and swift," said Frank Pearl, president of the Colombian Petroleum Association (ACP). "If one of the key variables is missing from the investment environment, it will not be attractive and we may fail to draw those resources."

Beyond policy and financial concerns, investors will also need reassurance that Colombia is addressing local insecurity that poses a physical threat to the oil and gas sector. Networks of armed groups in Colombia have long menaced the stability of the energy industry; in 2025 alone, the country's oil infrastructure suffered 580 attacks and blockades. Reestablishing security will not be easy. A crackdown on localized conflict under de la Espriella could trigger a major flare-up in attacks on critical infrastructure.

Experts also warn that de la Espriella's politics will ignite conflict in communities that have long resisted fossil fuel development in their regions. "My concern is not only the environmental impacts of fracking itself, but also the possibility that community voices and democratic participation could be marginalized in the process," wrote Mariana Terán Ramirez, a Colombian lawyer and climate activist. "The decisions made in the coming years will have real consequences for millions of people. Climate change is not an ideological issue."

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com