A quiet trickle of central banks moving gold and bonds out of the United States is increasingly looking like a pattern, and the question now is whether Germany, the biggest holder of all, eventually joins it.

The Netherlands' central bank has moved gold out of New York, following a similar step by France earlier this year. The Dutch central bank cited "geopolitical unrest" in its decision. It is not the first time: the Netherlands repatriated over 120 tonnes of gold from New York in 2014, so the country has a track record of adjusting where its reserves sit. Separately, Norway's $2.4 trillion oil fund has floated a plan to cut its Treasury holdings and reduce its overall government-bond exposure from 70% to 50%, according to a spokesperson for the fund.

A chief US economist told MarketWatch the pattern reflects a growing clash between the United States' status as a financial safe haven and President Trump's use of economic and military pressure to advance his agenda.

Unpredictability Rather Than a Specific Threat

The economist argued the underlying driver is less a specific, considered policy threat than what he described as "the irrationality of the president" — the unpredictability of Trump himself. He pointed to Trump's threat the previous week to cut trade ties with countries running a surplus with the US unless the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as a recent example.

He posed the question of whether Trump could suddenly decide that gold held in New York should not be allowed to leave, while acknowledging that the odds of that happening look unlikely. The concern echoes a historical precedent: in 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt's Executive Order 6102 barred most private gold ownership in the US, a episode often cited in debates over how far executive power can reach into gold holdings. Central banks, he said, are nonetheless not wrong to weigh that risk, at least until there is more clarity on US policy once Trump's second term ends in January 2029. Asked whether it was prudent for the Dutch to move gold out under those circumstances, he said he understood the decision.

A Broader Context of Pressure

The list of developments cited alongside the gold and bond moves is substantial: Trump's sweeping tariff fight that unsettled markets last year, the January capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, February's launch of the US-Iran war, and plans disclosed in late August to gain control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. Alongside these, there has been repeated friction with European and NATO allies, a campaign around Greenland and its natural resources, and an escalating trade dispute with Canada.

Central Banks Avoid Confiscation Framing

On its own, the Dutch move — a shift of Dutch gold reserves out of North America — is modest relative to global reserves, but the pattern matters more than any single transfer. Three developments now sit alongside each other: the Netherlands' gold shift, France's earlier repatriation, and reported plans from Norway's wealth fund to cut Treasury exposure from 70% to 50% of its bond holdings.

Taken together, they point to a genuine, if still early-stage, diversification trend among traditionally reliable holders of US assets — one that would matter significantly for Treasury demand and the dollar's reserve status if Germany, the largest foreign holder of US-stored gold, were to follow. It also fits a longer arc: central banks globally have been net gold buyers for years, with official gold purchases hitting record levels in recent years as emerging-market central banks in particular diversify away from the dollar.

Notably, the central banks involved have generally not framed their own decisions in confiscation-risk terms, citing liquidity and crisis-preparedness instead, while it is outside commentators and economists drawing the sharper link to Trump's unpredictability. Whether that gap narrows or persists is likely to be the more important signal than any individual country's next move.

Germany the Key Watchpoint

Germany, which holds the largest share of any country's gold in New York — roughly a third of its total reserves — has faced growing domestic political pressure to repatriate but has so far maintained that the New York Federal Reserve remains a trustworthy storage partner. Germany has been here before: between 2013 and 2017, the Bundesbank completed an early repatriation program, bringing home hundreds of tonnes of gold from New York and Paris ahead of schedule, so any new decision would not be without precedent. Whether its current position holds, or whether Germany eventually follows the Dutch and French moves, is likely to be the clearest signal of how far this trend has to run.

Sources: Investinglive, Newsweek, MarketWatch, Nasdaq