World

Britain on track for worst cereal harvest in four decades amid drought

Published Aug. 5, 2026, 8:31 a.m. KST

LONDON — Britain's cereal harvest is on track to be the worst since comparable records began in 1984, according to an analysis published on Wednesday, as crops wither after one of the driest and hottest spring-summer periods on record.

England recorded its warmest June on record and the U.K. its second warmest, while England and Wales experienced their driest July on record, according to Met Office data.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit said the difficult growing conditions may have reduced Britain's cereal and oilseed harvest by as much as 2.5 million metric tons compared with earlier forecasts, costing U.K. arable farmers up to $524 million, or £390 million, in lost revenue.

The group cited provisional yield estimates from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board showing that wheat, spring barley and oat yields are all expected to fall, with the estimated wheat yield well below the 10-year average at 6.8 tons per hectare. Wheat is Britain's largest arable crop by area and a staple of the domestic food supply chain, used in bread flour, brewing and animal feed, meaning shortfalls ripple across multiple food categories.

It said that with 54% of the wheat crop harvested, if those average yields hold, the U.K. cereal and oilseeds harvest would total 19.5 million tons, overtaking 2020 as the worst harvest on record since detailed records began in 1984. The 2020 harvest was also hit by extreme weather, when relentless autumn and winter waterlogging disrupted planting.

That would still be the case even after accounting for strong yields forecast for oilseed rape, the ECIU said.

"Even if yields are revised up, 2026 is now likely to be one of the five worst harvests since 1984, which would mean that four out of five of the worst harvests on record had occurred this decade after periods of extreme weather made worse by climate change," the ECIU said.

Earlier this week, the National Farmers' Union warned that Britain could face shortages of certain foods because of the drought and called for tax breaks for the industry to help improve water storage. Britain has among the lowest water storage reservoir capacity per capita in Europe, leaving farms heavily reliant on rainfall and groundwater abstraction.

Last week, more than 100 organizations wrote to new Prime Minister Andy Burnham urging him to make food a national priority alongside defence and energy.

Farmers across Europe have also warned of lower production and rising prices because of extreme weather. Drought conditions have been reported across the continent's grain belts this season, raising the prospect of tighter supplies on global commodity markets.