NewsCommodities & ForexAUD/USD Recovery Stalls at 100-Day Moving Average, 100-Hour MA Holds Support

AUD/USD Recovery Stalls at 100-Day Moving Average, 100-Hour MA Holds Support

Author: ForexLive·

Key Takeaways

  • •AUDUSD rebounded from its weekly low near 0.6970 and moved back above the 0.6989-0.6994 swing zone that previously acted as a ceiling.
  • •Sellers have capped rallies at the 100-day moving average near 0.7032, with price stalling at the level on both Wednesday and Friday.
  • •Buyers have defended the 100-hour moving average near 0.7008, with pullbacks on Thursday and Friday holding above it.
  • •A sustained break above 0.7032 would shift focus to 0.70447, the 200-day moving average at 0.70506, and the 50% retracement midpoint at 0.70654.
  • •A drop below the 100-hour average could send the pair back toward the 0.6989-0.6994 zone and the rising 200-hour moving average near 0.6984.
AUD/USD Recovery Stalls at 100-Day Moving Average, 100-Hour MA Holds Support

The AUDUSD has found support and resistance at two separate moving averages, and those levels are now providing the borderlines for both buyers and sellers, according to technical analysis published by ForexLive on Friday (original article). The pair is challenging resistance at the 100-day moving average near 0.702, while the 100-hour moving average around 0.7008 has been capping pullbacks.

Moving averages — the running average of closing prices over a set window of days or hours — are among the most widely followed tools in currency trading. Because they shift with each new candle, they act as dynamic levels rather than fixed price lines. On AUD/USD, one of the most heavily traded pairs in the foreign exchange market, such widely watched levels give a broad cross-section of traders a shared reference for framing decisions.

The pair set its weekly low on Monday near 0.6970 and has since worked its way higher, with buyers pushing price back above a familiar swing area between 0.6989 and 0.6994. That zone, marked by red numbered circles on the analyst's chart, has produced repeated highs and reactions, which is what gives it significance. In the report's framing, the area had acted as a ceiling that needed to be broken to give buyers more control; once cleared, it shifted into a potential floor, opening the way toward the next key target: the 100-day moving average at 0.7032.

Sellers lean against the 100-day MA

Price tested the 100-day moving average on Wednesday and stalled, and sellers leaned against the level again on Friday. The analysis notes that the moving average offers sellers a clear level at which to define and limit risk: as long as price stays below, sellers can look for a rotation lower, while a move above — and a sustained hold above — would strip the bearish trade of some of its technical support.

A sustained break above 0.7032 would put the following levels in focus, per the report:

  • 0.70447 — an intervening chart level
  • 0.70506 — the 200-day moving average
  • 0.70654 — the 50% midpoint of the September-to-October decline

The 50% midpoint is a standard retracement reference in technical analysis, marking the level at which a recovery would have reclaimed half of the prior decline. Getting above the 100-day moving average would represent another step forward for buyers and would shift attention toward the next resistance cluster, though the report cautions that they would still have work to do, with the 200-day moving average — a traditional gauge of the longer-term trend — waiting above.

Buyers defend the 100-hour MA

On the downside, buyers have also been leaning against support. Pullbacks on both Thursday and Friday stalled near the 100-hour moving average, currently around 0.7008, making it a close risk-defining level for buyers looking for the recovery to continue. Holding above keeps the setup more constructive; a break below would open the door for a rotation back toward:

  • 0.6989–0.6994 — the swing area marked by the red numbered circles
  • 0.6984 — rising 200-hour moving average

A move back below those levels would take away more of the buyers' progress from earlier in the week, according to the analysis.

For now, the battle lines are defined: sellers are leaning against the 100-day moving average above, buyers are defending the 100-hour moving average below, and traders are waiting for the next decisive push. In the accompanying video, the analyst walks through those levels, explains why they matter, and outlines what buyers and sellers need to do to take more control.