The S&P/ASX 200 index is expected to open lower this morning, with futures pointing down 0.2% to 9,177 points amid rising oil prices.

The local market opening is set to reflect overnight movement on Wall Street, where major indices pulled back slightly from recent record highs as prospects for a US-Iran peace deal appeared to dim.

Oil prices surged more than 5% following reports that Iran launched a missile attack on a United Arab Emirates vessel. According to Reuters, there had been indications that Iran was nearing a final agreement with Oman to define new shipping lanes between the two countries through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints through which roughly one-fifth of global daily oil consumption normally passes. However, it was also reported that the United States must meet additional conditions before the strategic waterway can be reopened.

Rystad Energy has reported that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Iran conflict in March 2026 removed 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from the market. Even after strategic releases and rerouted trade flows, the market remains structurally short by approximately 4.0 million bpd of crude and 3.8 million bpd of refined products compared to pre-conflict levels.

On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to deliver its latest decision on the interest rate level, a scheduled announcement that markets monitor for signals on borrowing costs and the broader economic trajectory, while more than 25 million Australians are expected to have finalised their census details. The Australian Census aims to count every person and household in the country, with projections exceeding 25 million people across roughly 10 million households. The next Australian census following 2026 is scheduled for August 2031.

In foreign exchange markets, the Australian dollar is trading at US$0.705.

In commodity markets (all prices in US dollars):

• Iron Ore: up 0.11% to $94.55 per tonne
• Brent Crude: up 5.06% to $82.136 per barrel
• Gold: $4,391.34 per ounce
• US Natural Gas futures: up 4.08% to $2.7705 per MMBtu

The commodity mix carries particular weight for Australia, where iron ore stands as the largest goods export by value and gold serves as a traditional store of value that attracts investor interest during periods of geopolitical tension.

Among local corporate developments:

• Life360 (ASX:360), the safety mobile application specialist, released record financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, achieving its highest-ever total revenue of US$159 million, driven by strong performance across both subscription and advertising revenue.
• Macmahon Holdings (ASX:MAH) has been awarded a $406 million underground mining contract at the Snowy River gold mine in New Zealand.
• Cosmo Metals (ASX:CMO) has confirmed a broad mineralised zone at Laguna Verde within the Kanowna gold project in Western Australia.
• Cooper Metals (ASX:CPM) has obtained encouraging copper and gold samples from the Ardmore North project in Queensland.
• Sun Silver (ASX:SS1) has completed its high-resolution airborne geophysical survey at the Maverick silver project in Nevada.