Asian Metals Market Update for 4th September 2026

By Chintan Karnani

Chintan Karnani maintains an unchanged bullish medium-term and long-term outlook for gold, silver, copper and non-ferrous metals, stating that he is disregarding commentary from Federal Reserve officials on interest rate hikes and taming inflation. In his view, demand fundamentals for precious metals and non-ferrous metals remain very strong. The report, published on GoldSeek, is a daily Asian-session metals commentary aimed at intraday and positional traders, and its medium-term stance here stands in contrast to his more tactical, level-specific guidance for silver further below.

Copper and Aluminium: No Substitutes

Karnani notes that copper and aluminium are substitutes for each other, but that there is no substitute for either metal. He points to 2026 as a year of forest fires and severe heat in Europe, arguing that Europe must update its electricity grid infrastructure to cope with rising temperatures and will also need air-conditioners. This grid upgrade, he says, will require huge quantities of either copper or aluminium. Combined with demand from AI data centres, electric vehicles and the broader global demand outlook, current available stocks of copper and aluminium are insufficient. The argument taps into a widely discussed structural theme in the metals market: electricity grids, data centres and EV manufacturing are all highly copper- and aluminium-intensive, which is why institutions tracking long-term demand have repeatedly flagged potential supply shortfalls in copper over the coming decade.

On silver, Karnani argues that its use in plants, machinery and equipment is the best way to combat global warming, and that silver use — both current and future — is multiple times greater than that of any other metal, whether precious, ferrous or non-ferrous. Premium equipment and high-end consumer durables will continue to use silver for peak performance, he adds. Silver's role here reflects its unmatched electrical and thermal conductivity, which underpins its industrial demand in electronics, solar photovoltaics and high-end manufacturing — a demand base that makes silver's fundamentals partly distinct from gold's.

Volatility and Geopolitics

Karnani expects intraday and short-term volatility to remain very high "thanks to Trump," describing the next thirty months as an intraday traders' paradise and a short-term investors' nightmare across all asset classes. Apart from AI and bond yields, he says fundamentals will not change despite Trump's antics, though country-by-country stock allocations will shift once the US Senate elections are concluded.

On geopolitics, he cites U.S. Vice President JD Vance's statement that the fighting between the United States and Iran was not a war, and his refusal to provide a timeline for the conflict's end. Karnani argues the Trump administration is changing the media narrative of the Iran war by saying it is not a war, and questions: if the Iran war is not a war, then what is it — a religious war for American voters? He asserts the Iran war is here to stay, and notes that South Korea will send military assets to the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global crude shipments, which is why any escalation there typically moves both oil prices and safe-haven demand for gold — the linkage behind his crude-oil risk warning below.

Geopolitics, in his view, suggests gold is poised for a quick $2,500–$3,000 rise once the US Senate elections are over. He states that spot gold will first rise to $10,000-plus rather than $3,500.00. Bond yield trends will be the key short-term driver of gold prices, alongside technicals and momentum. The emphasis on bond yields reflects gold's usual inverse relationship with real interest rates: higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while falling yields tend to support it.

Crude oil and any rise in crude prices for the rest of the year represent the only risk to the global economy and to the interest rate stance of central banks other than the Federal Reserve, he writes.

US Economy and Data

The USA is closed on Monday. Karnani describes U.S. economic performance between September and January 2027 as crucial, noting the American summer is over and that the positive economic impact from the soccer World Cup will vanish before Christmas.

A low August NFP reading and/or a rise in the August US unemployment rate, if any occur, will have only a limited-duration impact on precious and non-ferrous metals, he says. (NFP, or nonfarm payrolls, is the monthly US jobs report and one of the most market-moving data releases for metals and currencies, since it feeds directly into expectations for Federal Reserve policy.) He also advises ignoring moves in USD/JPY, JGB (Japan government bond) yields and the yen carry trade, quipping that the Bank of Japan is now a subsidiary of the Federal Reserve.

Spot Silver Technicals

• Current market price: $66.64
• 100-day simple moving average: $66.05
• 200-day simple moving average: $73.82
• Key intraday resistance: $67.50 and $69.10
• Key intraday support: $65.24

Today and Monday: Spot silver has to trade over $65.24 to rise to $69.11, $72.94 and higher. A crash or sell-off is expected if spot silver trades below $65.24 after NFP through the day's close and through all of Monday.

Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.

Risk Guidance for Silver Traders

Low-risk traders and low-risk takers trading silver — spot, futures or ETF — should preferably trade intraday until 19th September, Karnani writes. For low-risk takers, a systematic investment plan (SIP) or monthly SIP, in physical metal or ETF, is the best way to invest in silver. Derivative trading in silver is not for low-risk takers. Anyone intending to trade silver derivatives or silver futures on any commodity exchange in the world should assess their own risk profile first.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas provided are a purely independent viewpoint, offered solely for collective learning and academic interest, with no commercial benefit accruing or deemed to accrue to the author. The ideas shared cannot be construed as investment advice. Readers acting on them are asked to apply their own prudence and consult a financial advisor before acting on any recommendations. The author is not responsible for any profits or losses arising from acting on such advice, and assumes readers are well aware of the risks involved in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: The author trades on India's MCX commodity exchange and holds open positions in MCX commodity futures. He does not trade CME futures or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

Notes to This Report

• All views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
• Follow on Twitter: @chintankarnani
• Holds mean holds on a daily closing basis.
• Use appropriate stop losses on intraday trades to limit losses.
• The time given in the report is the time of completion of the report.
• All prices/quotes are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise specified.
• All news is taken from Reuters newswires.
• Technical analysis is done with TradingView software.

Source: GoldSeek — About the author: Chintan Karnani