Das Ausmaß der Enttäuschung bei den Arbeitsmarktdaten — ein Rückgang um 23.000 gegenüber einem erwarteten Anstieg um 80.000 — ist bislang das deutlichste Signal dafür, dass die Fed mehr Spielraum hat, die Zinsen zu halten oder zu senken, als die Märkte zuvor eingepreist hatten. Da die Zins-Futures nun eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von rund 45 Prozent für eine Zinserhöhung im September anzeigen, nach 57 Prozent vor der Veröffentlichung, dürfte der Dollar weiter unter Druck bleiben und die realen Renditen niedriger, was beides für Gold stützend ist. Der Anstieg von Gold über 4.360 Dollar je Unze und der beste Wochengewinn seit Januar sprechen eher für einen neuen Impuls als für einen einmaligen Ausschlag, zumal eine große Bank bereits einen Weg zu 5.000 Dollar bis zur ersten Hälfte von 2027 sieht. Das Risiko für diese Einschätzung besteht in einer restriktiveren Reaktion der Fed, falls die kommenden Inflationsdaten stärker als erwartet ausfallen, was die Dollar-Schwäche dämpfen würde, auf die diese Rally angewiesen ist. Für den AUD sind ein schwächerer US-Dollar und ein festerer Goldpreis in der Regel unterstützend, auch wenn der Zusammenhang nur teilweise greift, da der Goldanstieg eher durch die Neubewertung der US-Zinserwartungen als durch eine breitere Risikobereitschaft getrieben wird.

investingLive Americas market news wrap: Non-farm payrolls turn negative, dollar drops

A shock US payrolls contraction has traders slashing rate hike bets and sending gold to its best week in seven months.

Summary:

Spot gold jumped above 4360 dollars an ounce on Friday, its highest since June 17 and up more than 3 percent on the day

Its largest weekly rise since January 19, gaining more than 7 percent over the week

US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, versus a downwardly revised 20,000 gain in June and forecasts for an 80,000 increase

Rate futures now price roughly a 45 percent chance of a September Fed hike, down from 57 percent before the report, with hold odds rising to 56 percent from 43 percent

Declining energy prices and reduced rate hike odds are together weighing on the dollar and supporting gold

One major global bank said it expects gold to reach 5000 dollars an ounce in the first half of 2027

Gold surged to a seven week high on Friday after a surprise drop in US nonfarm payrolls for July dashed hopes of a September interest rate hike, setting bullion on course for its best week in seven months. Spot gold jumped above 4360 dollars per ounce, up more than 3 percent on the day and its highest level since June 17.

The US labor department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, a sharp reversal from a downwardly revised 20,000 increase in June and far below the 80,000 gain economists polled by Reuters had expected. The miss immediately reshaped rate expectations, with one analyst noting the weaker than forecast data makes the Federal Reserve less likely to raise rates at its next meeting.

Declining energy prices alongside the reduced likelihood of a near term rate increase are together pointing toward a weaker dollar and firmer gold prices, a combination that has underpinned bullion's rally over the past week. Rate futures now price in roughly a 45 percent chance of Fed tightening in September, down from 57 percent before the jobs report, while the probability the Fed holds rates steady next month climbed to 56 percent from 43 percent beforehand. Because gold generates no yield of its own, lower interest rates make it comparatively more attractive against yield bearing assets such as bonds.

Bullion's advance last week, more than 7 percent, was its largest weekly rise since January 19, underscoring how quickly sentiment has shifted on the back of softening US labor data. One major global bank said in a note on Friday that it expects gold prices to climb as high as 5000 dollars per ounce in the first half of 2027, citing the same dynamic of a softer dollar and lower real yields drawing investors toward the metal. With the September Fed decision now firmly in focus, upcoming inflation and employment releases are likely to be the next major test of whether this rally has further room to run.