Fernando Llorente 在 Zoomex X Space 最終場預測西班牙世界盃決賽 2-1 獲勝,主張控球優於退守防線
重點速覽
- •Fernando Llorente 預測西班牙將在世界盃決賽以 2-1 擊敗阿根廷,這也是西班牙自 2010 年在南非奪冠後首次重返決賽。
- •Llorente 將英格蘭準決賽失利歸因於球隊在 1-0 領先後退守防線,並指出最後十五分鐘英格蘭控球率僅十二 percent,而阿根廷掌控八十八 percent。
- •作為 Zoomex World Cup Impact Pledge 的一部分,1,000 USDT 將捐助給委內瑞拉受困境影響的人們;若 Llorente 的比賽預測正確,金額將提高至 5,000 USDT。
- •Lionel Messi、Kylian Mbappe 和 Erling Haaland 在金靴獎榜上各有八個進球,但隨著 Haaland 和 Mbappe 出局,決賽前只有 Messi 仍具競爭資格。
- •Llorente 指出 Rodri 重回最佳狀態,以及西班牙流暢的位置輪轉,是球隊的關鍵優勢;同時他點名 Messi、Enzo Fernandez 和 Alexis Mac Allister 是阿根廷最具影響力的球員。

VICTORIA,Seychelles,July 23, 2026 — Fernando Llorente 表示,西班牙對法國做得最好的事,正是英格蘭對阿根廷時停止做的事:他們持續控球。當你掌握球權,就能主導節奏。
英格蘭取得 1-0 領先後,立即退到半場線附近,以五名後衛和一名疲憊的前鋒防守自家球門。阿根廷接下來三十分鐘吸收壓力、觀察並等待。當空檔出現時,他們把握得非常俐落。Llorente 堅稱,英格蘭擁有足以作出不同選擇的球員。
他說,西班牙不會犯同樣的錯。這是 Llorente 在世界盃決賽前夕傳達的訊息——這是西班牙自 2010 年在南非捧盃後首次重返決賽——西班牙將對上阿根廷,而他已公開預測西班牙將以 2-1 獲勝。在他看來,最好的防守,就是用球權來防守。
作為 Zoomex World Cup Impact Pledge 的一部分,Zoomex 舉辦了其 World Cup Edition X Space 第五集暨最終集。討論陣容包括世界盃冠軍得主 Fernando Llorente,以及足球評論員 Juan、Gran Mussama 和 Miguel Serrano TV。Fernando Lillo Aranda 從 Boston 主持本場活動,當時距離世界盃決賽僅剩最後數小時,外界期待持續升溫。
本場活動也標誌著伴隨該系列每一集推出的五集慈善倡議正式結束。隨著 Llorente 預測西班牙 2-1 獲勝,已承諾的 1,000 USDT 捐助將用於支援委內瑞拉受困境影響的人們——這是近期一位朋友向 Llorente 提起的議題。若他的預測成真,捐助金額將提高至 5,000 USDT。
西班牙踢得像在和朋友一起比賽,這並非偶然
整場討論中,Fernando Lillo Aranda 多次回到許多西班牙支持者在決賽前提出的問題:這樣一支年輕球隊,面對法國和阿根廷這類對手時,為何能保持如此沉著?
Llorente 解釋,他在為 Dazón 和西班牙電視台報導本屆賽事期間,曾在對法國一戰前與西班牙隊內人士交流。他們的描述與他後來在場上看到的情況高度一致。
"Before the game they already told me that in the changing room they were calm, that they were talking about their things, jokes, stories and such. It surprises me, the attitude so relaxed they have before such an important game, and then how much they came out, because in that sense we were much more involved than the French in the game. They came out winning all the duels. It seemed to me that we were much more involved than them."
開賽前,Llorente 原本預期西班牙會因法國前鋒群的速度和進攻能力而陷入苦戰,其中包括 Mbappé、Olise、Dembélé 和 Barcola。他也指出,法國的反擊能力,以及中場失誤可能造成危險攻防轉換,都是重大威脅。
但他看到的是,西班牙透過掌控球權,壓制法國的優勢,並剝奪對方以偏好節奏比賽所需的條件。這種對控球的堅持,呼應了定義西班牙足球最成功時代的控球哲學,從 2008 年至 2012 年連續贏得主要賽事冠軍的球隊,到現任主帥 Luis de la Fuente 執教下、將這份傳承與更直接的打法和更高強度逼搶相結合的新一代。
"These guys are surprising me. The ability they have to play these types of games in which there is so much pressure, they play as if they were playing with friends, with a naturalness, with a confidence that escapes me."
Llorente 也稱讚了 Rodri,後者在整屆賽事中逐步恢復最佳狀態。他形容西班牙對法國的第二個進球,正是球隊整體風格的體現。
"From the goal, defense, midfield, how they break the middle, Fabián, the pass, the wall of Porro. It was pure caviar."
他指出,西班牙不斷輪轉位置——後衛前插到中場,中場球員進入進攻區域,球員之間流暢交換角色,使對手無法辨識穩定的防守對位。
英格蘭做錯了什麼,阿根廷做對了什麼
本場活動中最深入的討論之一,聚焦於英格蘭敗給阿根廷。由於該場比賽在前一晚才剛結束,這為 Llorente 所認為球隊在對阿根廷守住領先時應避免的做法,提供了即時案例。
"I think that England made a mistake. In the end, you score a goal and you think that with that it is already done. And in the end what you cannot allow yourself is to get behind and let Argentina dominate you. They had players on the bench, an incredible squad to have done something different. Players who were still tired, I would have brought players up quickly. Having had players up quickly could have put Argentina in serious trouble. Saka, Rashford left too late, Madueke. Players who could have killed them on the counter, and yet they took out five defenders, 5-4-1, which in the end, apart from Harry Kane up there, who was already very tired, without a counter-attack exit."
Miguel Serrano TV 以比賽數據強化了這項分析。最後十五分鐘,英格蘭控球率僅為十二 percent,而阿根廷掌握了八十八 percent 的球權。英格蘭在最後十分鐘只完成兩次有效傳球,其中一次來自門將 Jordan Pickford。
Miguel 認為,英格蘭在比賽末段的防守換人向阿根廷傳達了明確訊息。按他的說法,這個訊息不是「我們正在守住這個領先」,而是「來攻擊我,因為我就待在這裡」。阿根廷接收到了這個訊息,並作出相應回應。
Gran Mussama 將英格蘭的做法與 Diego Simeone 的 Atlético Madrid 相提並論。
"When he is winning, when he goes 1-0 with a very tight result, they fall back and the opposing team sees it. Either a guy with a good shot or someone scores a goal and they keep closing until he scores."
在 Gran Mussama 看來,退得更深只會鼓勵對手施加更多壓力。
談到阿根廷的強項時,Llorente 點名 Lionel Messi、Enzo Fernández 和 Alexis Mac Allister 是球隊最具影響力的球員。談及 Mac Allister 的角色時,他強調了那些通常較少受到公眾關注的貢獻。
"Enzo yesterday moved the team as he wanted, always seeing when Messi was alone, and at the last minute how he went to the right wing because there Messi was all the time alone, and from there they raised the whole play."
他補充說:"The opportunities he had yesterday to score a goal was incredible. It is going to be a very complicated game because they have that ability to get out of trouble. If you give them the smallest minimum option to return to the game they are very dangerous."
Llorente 最後概述了西班牙在決賽中的優先事項。
"We do not have to get into their game. They have to leave with the same mentality they had against France. Being ready in the duels, reading where the balls can fall to get there before them. Keep dominating the game and not give them too many options. Don't make mistakes, that's the main thing in a final like this."
前鋒的技藝:空間、觸碰,以及後衛能對你做的最糟糕的事
本場活動中最具技術細節的環節之一,聚焦於禁區內前鋒踢法的藝術。在 Lionel Messi 為阿根廷以頭球扳平後,Fernando Lillo Aranda 詢問,據稱 Lautaro Martínez 已被盯防的情況下,這樣的進球如何可能發生;Llorente 隨後從前鋒視角解釋了攻擊傳中的機制。
Llorente 解釋,後衛在正確時機給予最輕微的身體接觸,都可能完全破壞前鋒完成射門的能力。
"When the strikers enter the area, what complicates your life the most is to have the defender already touching you and bothering you? If before the centre, to anything, you give a little touch to the striker, he is dead. When it happened to me playing, that is the worst thing they can do to you. You have to try to gain space so that the defender does not bother you, because if when you are jumping the minimum touch already makes it very difficult for you to finish."
回顧自己的球員生涯,Llorente 描述了他的身體對抗能力如何經常讓他在禁區內創造空間。即便如此,經驗豐富的後衛仍能在頭球或射門前,以時機精準的一次觸碰化解進攻機會。
"I remember that when I was going to the shot, suddenly the side from the opposite side comes at you. I always tried to look for the back of the defenders. When the side comes on the other side that you do not see it and gives you a little touch before the shot, you were dead. There were sides that did it very well. Very smart people who bothered you at that moment and you have nothing to do."
Llorente 也從後衛角度分享了如何在禁區內應對前鋒的建議。
"When you are defending and the striker enters the area, do not focus only on the centre. Do not neglect. The striker is going to try to take your back and take advantage of that. You have to be touching him, grabbing, looking at the centre and the player who is going to score. Because a lot of people accumulate, one thinks it belongs to one defender, the other thinks it belongs to the other, and in the end the striker finishes without a mark."
根據 Llorente 的說法,這段過程正好反映了阿根廷扳平進球時發生的情況。禁區內有多名球員,但沒有清楚指定的盯防者,Alexis Mac Allister 晚一步插入禁區,即使他並非場上最高的球員之一,仍完全無人盯防。
他遇過最難纏的後衛——以及撞斷他肋骨的人
在快問快答環節中,Fernando Lillo Aranda 問 Llorente,本屆世界盃哪位後衛是他最不想面對的。Llorente 立即點名 Virgil van Dijk,理由是他的身體力量與運動能力兼具。
"When I went to the Premier League, I was very surprised by how strong all the defenders were, they were all big, even bigger than me, stronger. He seemed to me to be a barbarity. Not only how strong he was, how fast he was, because he's very fast in the long run. He's a very complete defender."
Llorente 回憶起自己效力 Swansea 對上 Southampton 時,首次面對 Van Dijk 的經歷。
"In my first game, I was at Swansea against him, and he was at Southampton. In the first clash that happened, he put his elbow in my ribs and fractured one of my ribs. I found out later. At that moment, I held on as best I could. He fell to the ground, I did my best, but the pain I was in was terrible. And then I played the next game, I scored my first goal against City, and I had to stop for a month because I couldn't take the pain anymore."
他補充說,從西班牙足球轉戰 Premier League 後,必須適應那裡的身體強度;相較之下,西班牙足球中的身體接觸通常較容易處理。"I told my teammates to shoot me from below, because from above it was complicated."
雖然 Van Dijk 因身材、速度和力量的結合而格外突出,Llorente 表示 Giorgio Chiellini 則代表另一種完全不同的挑戰,原因在於他不懈的防守風格。
"The first time I faced him was in an Italy-Spain, in a friendly. It was terrible. How does that mark you? Surely, that's the most sticky one, the one that hits you the most. The other one is stronger, but he doesn't hit you as much. Chiellini is exaggerated. He doesn't let you breathe."
Llorente 解釋,他在 Juventus 與 Chiellini 當了兩個賽季隊友,並與 Leonardo Bonucci 和 Andrea Barzagli 並肩,讓他親身體會到義大利防守的極高水準。
Rodri 還是 Busquets?一個無法公平回答的問題
Gran Mussama 請 Llorente 比較西班牙兩位最偉大的中場:巔峰期的 Rodri,或巔峰期的 Sergio Busquets。
Llorente 承認,直接比較對任何一方都不公平。
"We can be talking about the two best midfielders in the world. At that time, we also not only had Busi, but Xabi Alonso, we had many options there, not just Busi. But Rodri is impressive. Unlike Busi, perhaps he has more travel, he is physically stronger. It is incredible how he is able to be everywhere. He also has the reliability in passes. I think he has more than 90% success in passes, which is incredible. I think he is the one with the most in the world."
Llorente 強調,Rodri 重回最佳狀態已成為西班牙本屆賽事最大優勢之一。Rodri 在 Manchester City 國內與歐洲賽場的統治時期,已被廣泛視為世界頂尖防守中場;如今他也把這份俱樂部層級的影響力帶到了國際賽場。
"Perhaps it is the great news of Spain. Seeing Rodri again at his best is one of the keys for me."
在早先傷勢疑慮之後,Rodri 表現回升,正好與西班牙在本屆賽事中最強勢的幾場演出相互呼應。
Llorente 也稱讚 Mikel Oyarzabal,特別提到他的技術能力與以團隊為先的心態。
"I am in love with how he plays, and more of how he plays, with his attitude. He is a boy who does not think about himself, he thinks only about the collective, about the team, about working. I love how he moves, how many times he goes down between the lines, helping the team to get out from behind. In the end, he gathers a lot of people in the centre of the field. The positions are rotated and that makes it very difficult for the defenders. Many times they do not know who to mark."
Llorente 將 Oyarzabal 的跑動與西班牙的戰術彈性,連結到他對現代足球更廣泛的觀察。
"Nowadays they work a lot on the tactical issue, they tell them more or less what to do in the field, more mechanical movements, and a little creativity is taken away from the player. In Spain, I see that they interpret the game very well. They let each one take out the best that he has, or his creativity inside the field."
足球已經改變——而改變它的是細節
Juan 問 Llorente,現代足球是否比他球員時期更重視身體對抗,或者只是整體水準提高,使個人技術的發揮空間變小。
Llorente 解釋,足球之所以演進,是因為準備、體能調整與細節關注日益受到重視。
"The details are taken care of more and more. All the players already have nutritionists, their diets, their individualised work, which before was impossible. I remember when I started, we would go out to the field and we would start shooting without warming up, without doing anything. Today you already have a pre-activation in the gym, then you go out, you have another warm-up when you go out to the field. They take great care of the details."
他表示,這些變化已從根本上改變了這項運動。
"Football is evolving. The fact of taking care of the details also makes you train more and better. The players are better physically, they take better care of themselves, everything is much more professionalised. It is more physical, you run more and every time everyone goes further to the limit. That is clear. That is why there is also so much equality, despite the fact that there are better teams than others."
回顧自己作為傳統中鋒的踢法,Llorente 承認,能以身體優勢護住長傳球並帶動隊友參與進攻的前鋒,已變得越來越少見。
"Every time I see a long ball and there is a duel, normally the defenders win it. The one who plays from the back is a striker. It is complicated today to see a striker who, every time there is a long ball, keeps it and is able to give the team a way out from above."
Llorente 指出,當今許多頂級俱樂部都試圖效仿 Barcelona 以控球為基礎、從後場組織的建構方式。因此,現代足球中許多進球如今源自後場組織階段的失誤,而不是傳統進攻套路。
與談者預測、金靴獎,以及一場晚餐賭注
與談者最後分享了他們對決賽的預測。Llorente 已在 FIFA 平台提交西班牙 2-1 獲勝的預測。Miguel Serrano TV 預測西班牙將謹慎地以 1-0 勝出,並提到 Johannesburg 2010,同時強調在足球最大舞台前管理期待的重要性。Juan 預測 3-1 獲勝,而 Gran Mussama 則預測,如果西班牙早早進球,比分將是 4-0。Fernando Lillo Aranda 表示,如果這項預測成真,他願意請 Gran Mussama 到任何他選擇的地方吃牛排。
Gran Mussama 後來將預測修正為西班牙 4-1 獲勝,Lionel Messi 進球。"Since he's retiring as the best in history and didn't play in the World Cup." 這項預測已被記錄在案。
討論隨後轉向金靴獎競爭。Miguel Serrano TV 說明了排名情況,指出 Kylian Mbappé、Lionel Messi 和 Erling Haaland 各有八個進球。隨著 Haaland 和 Mbappé 出局,只剩 Messi 仍有競爭資格,使他成為熱門人選。Mikel Oyarzabal 有五個進球,必須在決賽上演帽子戲法才能追平。與談者一致認為,如果西班牙贏得世界盃,他們樂於接受 Messi 拿下金靴獎,同時也承認 Oyarzabal 在決賽攻入三球的可能性不高。
Miguel 也談到了圍繞阿根廷、裁判判罰與社群媒體敘事的持續討論。他提到 Lionel Messi 在阿根廷於 2019 Copa América 準決賽出局後的評論——當時 Messi 批評貪腐以及他認為偏袒巴西的裁判判決——Miguel 觀察到,現在許多關於阿根廷的論點,與 Messi 過去曾表達的擔憂相互呼應。在 Miguel 看來,足球歷史經常重演,而奪冠球隊不可避免會成為不同敘事競逐的對象。
談話最後討論了 Messi 的未來,以及他再次參加 FIFA World Cup 的可能性。由於 Messi 到 2030 年預計將是 41 或 42 歲,與談者普遍認為再次參加世界盃的可能性不高。Gran Mussama 認為 Major League Soccer 未能維持同等競爭強度,而 Juan 則表示,如果阿根廷贏下這場決賽,Messi 的傳奇地位已經完整。他認為 2028 Copa América 可能是更現實的國際賽目標。
Zoomex Space 帶來的啟示
在整場 Zoomex World Cup Edition X Space 中,有一個核心主題貫穿足球分析,以及關於準備、心態和執行的更廣泛討論:成功的球隊即使在壓力下,也會堅持自己的計畫。
Llorente 指出,英格蘭對阿根廷的換人,是策略因焦慮而非信心改變的例子。英格蘭的戰術決策不但沒有維持控制,反而邀請阿根廷持續施壓,並改變了場上向雙方球隊傳達的訊息。
他將這種做法與西班牙對法國前的心態作對比。他描述,儘管比賽意義重大,更衣室裡仍充滿冷靜的談話、玩笑與自信。對 Llorente 而言,這種氛圍反映的是一支信任自身準備的球隊。
無論比分如何,計畫始終是計畫。不論是 1-0 領先或 1-0 落後,西班牙的身份都沒有改變,因為決定性的工作早已透過準備、訓練和有紀律的決策完成。
"You have to play a game like the one we played against France. We practically did not make mistakes. Because if you lose the ball in a field where they can catch you in some counterattack with spaces, they are still a dangerous team."
Llorente 總結說,有紀律的執行,本質上就是成功落實原先計畫。在壓力下偏離該計畫,便會創造出阿根廷這類頂級球隊能夠利用的機會。
Gran Mussama 的 4-0 預測已被記錄。晚餐賭注也有人見證。Fernando Llorente 說,西班牙將贏得世界盃決賽——而委內瑞拉人民的 5,000 USDT 正在另一端等待。
關於 Zoomex
Zoomex 成立於 2021 年,是一家專注於衍生品交易的全球加密貨幣交易平台。該平台服務超過 35 個國家和地區的逾 3 million 名用戶,並提供超過 590 個交易對。Zoomex 營運高效能撮合引擎,並提供透明的資產顯示、訂單資訊、費率結構與交易規則。
該平台在多個司法管轄區維持註冊、牌照與監管狀態,包括 U.S. MSB、Canada MSB、U.S. NFA 和 Australia AUSTRAC。Zoomex 已完成區塊鏈安全公司 Hacken 進行的安全審計,並持續透過 Proof of Reserves、Security & Transparency、Compliance Information,以及 Fees / Rules Transparency 等措施強化其信任框架。
除了加密貨幣交易外,Zoomex 也透過頂級體育合作擴大全球品牌影響力,包括 TGR Haas F1 Team、FIFA World Cup 冠軍門將 Emiliano Martínez,以及 Wimbledon 等世界級網球賽事。這項策略反映出加密貨幣平台透過高知名度體育贊助尋求主流能見度的更廣泛趨勢,近年來 Crypto.com 和 Binance 等公司也在足球、Formula 1 和籃球領域採取類似行動。