Eagle Capital Management 這家投資管理公司已發布其 2026 年第二季投資人信，可在此下載副本。在該信中，該公司探討了市場對 AI 資本支出的熱情如何推動 S&P 500 盈餘強勁成長，同時也因估值偏高、需求集中與激進的投資假設而提高風險。

Eagle 仍然堅定看好 AI，但其偏好建構一個能在多種情境下表現良好的投資組合，而不是依賴單一預測。在該公司看來，當前盈餘可能高估了底層經濟實質，因為半導體設備會在數年間折舊，而自由現金流成長仍然弱得多。

Eagle 也預期，AI 實驗室、超大規模雲端業者與半導體產業之間的競爭與新增產能，最終會形成贏家與輸家。這些動態正促使該公司將資本重新配置到最擁擠的 AI 交易之外的具吸引力機會，同時維持對高品質受益者的選擇性曝險。該投資組合以較市場折價 20% 的估值交易，且預期 EPS 成長更快。

在該投資組合中，Eagle Capital Management 提到了 ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML)。該公司提供用於先進半導體設備系統之開發、生產、行銷、銷售、升級與維護的微影解決方案。ASML 總部位於荷蘭 Veldhoven，是極紫外光（EUV）微影機的唯一供應商，而這類設備是領先製程晶片製造所必需的；其客戶包括全球主要晶片製造商，如 TSMC、Samsung 與 Intel。EUV 設備使用超短波長光來印製定義最先進晶片的微小電路圖樣，且它們屬於半導體製造中最複雜、最昂貴的設備之一，公開報導的單機價格高達數億美元。ASML 長期的微影競爭對手 Nikon 與 Canon 雖在較舊的深紫外光技術領域競爭，但從未將 EUV 系統推向市場，這也是 Eagle 將該公司描述為壟斷地位的原因。

2026 年 8 月 18 日，ASML 收於每股 $1,802.98，微跌 0.08%。該股近一個月報酬為 0.06%，過去 52 週上漲 140.56%。ASML 的市值為 $682.12 billion。

Eagle Capital Management 在其 2026 年第二季投資人信中就 ASML 表示如下：

"Half of our capital here is invested in TSMC and ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML), two of the most dominant businesses in the semiconductor supply chain. The other half is invested across the three major hyperscalers. We ascribe a portion of the value of each of these three companies to their cloud business and the balance to the remainder of the company; i.e., 60% of the value of Amazon is from AWS and 40% is from retail. TSMC and ASML are two of the best businesses in the semiconductor industry. ASML has a monopoly in extreme ultraviolet lithography ("EUV"), which is required for leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing. Both companies are well positioned over the next 5-10 years to participate in the sector's secular growth while maintaining their competitive positions. That said, they will face pressures when the next downturn comes.

As previously discussed, we think the hyperscalers have wide competitive advantages over neoclouds. Earnings have accelerated as the companies have significantly increased data center capex. Our central case is that they will provide control-plane solutions that let customers choose among AI models and capabilities, and that AI will diffuse broadly enough to mitigate, but not eliminate, customer concentration risk with Anthropic and OpenAI. Returns on capital should still be attractive, albeit not as high as before. Earnings growth and earnings should be much higher in the coming years given the magnitude of the investment and opportunity. We expect EPS growth of 15-20% over the next several years."

該信將 TSMC 與 ASML 並列的方式，反映了領先晶片製造本身的結構：最先進的晶片是在使用 ASML EUV 設備的 TSMC 生產線上製造，兩家公司位於 AI 資料中心所仰賴供應鏈中的相鄰位置。Eagle 對下一次景氣下行的提醒，也反映了半導體設備產業眾所周知的循環性；在這個產業中，設備訂單歷來會隨著晶片廠商的產能投資週期而上下波動，這也正是該公司對於延伸當前偏高 AI 資本支出的審慎態度。該信本身強調的變數包括超大規模雲端業者資料中心 capex 的走勢，以及 AI 採用是否能廣泛擴散，以抵消 Anthropic 與 OpenAI 帶來的客戶集中風險。

ASML 也出現在 Insider Monkey 的「Hedge Funds 最受歡迎 40 檔股票」名單中。根據該資料庫，截至第一季末共有 133 個避險基金投資組合持有 ASML，較前一季的 101 個增加。

Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey and syndicated via Yahoo Finance.