過去一年，AI 領域最具顛覆性的發展之一，就是 AI 領袖在訊息傳達上的協同行動轉變。

一開始，他們似乎是在坦率談論 AI 可能帶來的影響，包括對勞動力與更廣泛經濟的重大衝擊。但，正如這個論點所言，人們並不歡迎大規模顛覆或失業的前景。這種反應越來越明顯地表現為對資料中心的更廣泛反對。在美國政治光譜的兩端，資料中心如今都廣受不歡迎；有 71% 的美國人表示反對。這已經促成德州與俄亥俄州出現顯著的政策逆轉，現任共和黨領導人改變立場，並著手阻止這類專案。

過去一年，包括 Dario Amodei 和 Sam Altman 在內的 AI 領袖都放軟了措辭，現在表示工作不會流失，理由是過去的新技術最終都會帶來更多工作。同時，Anthropic 正在進行 IPO 路演，並告訴投資人，其總可服務市場為 30 兆美元，相當於全球服務經濟的 20%。這些訊息之間的張力很重要，因為這個產業的公開敘事如今必須同時滿足多個受眾：勞工、政策制定者與資本市場。

單從估值角度來看，要達到那樣的規模，就必須假設 AI 會帶來重大顛覆，包括取代軟體產業與服務業相當大的一部分。

文中認為，關於 Altman 的警訊本應更早出現：當 OpenAI 董事會因擔心他並不完全坦誠而反對他時，他後來又策動了一場政變奪回控制權。

文章引用了 Richard Ngo 的一篇部落格文章；Ngo 於 2021 年加入 OpenAI，文中描述了 Altman 誤導他人的能力：

For those who don't know Sam, it might seem odd that I ever took his arguments seriously even given my tendency towards sycophancy. One underappreciated factor is that he has something similar to Steve Jobs' reality distortion field—but in his case I'd call it an earnestness field. His intonation and body language send very strong signals of sincerity; and he does enough things motivated by earnest nerdiness that it’s easy to rationalize away discrepancies. Modeling this dynamic is necessary to explain the very high ratio between people who polarize against him and concrete evidence of his misbehavior. When people realize that Sam is lying (even about things that don’t matter much) while embodying that level of earnestness, there's a strong visceral update away from trusting him, which is hard to convey to others.

作者也將此情況與 Elon Musk 近期的言行相比，指出 Musk 一方面說到 2036 年金錢將不再重要，另一方面又花時間透過 DOGE 削減美國援助計畫，並爭取荒謬的薪酬方案。

文中的核心觀點是，整個產業已經變得自利，而許多參與者如今都在「講自己的部位」，使人難以判斷事情將走向何方。文章進一步指出，在競爭壓力下，對安全與對齊的關切已大致被擱置一旁，理由是「如果我不做，別人也會做」，而這同樣與財務誘因相一致。

文章引用了 Upton Sinclair 的話：「當一個人的薪水取決於他不去理解某件事時，要讓他理解那件事是很困難的。」

文中還說，隨著業界領袖尋找能幫助他們取勝、持續募資並維持權力的敘事，相關說法正在轉變。

以下是 Altman 的最新說法：

"I thought when we got to GPT-4, which was back in 2023, that very quickly after that there was going to be much more disruption, software businesses up for grabs right away, than it turned out to be."

"I think I was wrong about a few things, but one in terms of the speed: the economy just has so much inertia."

"People keep doing the same things, buying from the same company, wanting to use their tools the same way. I think this is actually a positive in many ways, and it's going to make this big transition go smoother and slower. I'm grateful for it."

"But it means we've all been too ambitious on timelines. Even with this incredible technology, society and the economy will adapt more slowly."

作者完全同意這個看法，並將其寫為 AI 的一項投資主題，這也呼應了 Warren Buffett 在網路泡沫前後說過的一句話：

"Our approach is very much profiting from lack of change rather than from change. With Wrigley chewing gum, it's the lack of change that appeals to me. I don't think it is going to be hurt by the Internet. That's the kind of business I like."

作者還寫到，不知何故，如今從事旅行社工作的人數竟然比 1995 年還多。儘管技術進步，房地產經紀人仍然持續拿走 3% 到 5% 的房地產交易金額。

對作者而言，這種思路促使他投資航空公司，因為那是 AI 不會顛覆的產業。不過，如果你正在投資 AI，作者認為如今值得信任的內部人士已經很少，這使得在該領域投資更加困難。

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