北卡罗来纳州特朗普选民因伊朗战争及经济成本表达不满
要点速览
- •MSNOW节目中引用的一项Politico民调显示,五分之一的自认MAGA选民希望伊朗战争立即结束。
- •目前只有三分之一的MAGA选民认为伊朗战争值得付出经济成本,较5月下降13个百分点,当时超过半数受访者表示支持。
- •Fox News民调发现,53 percent的选民会支持其众议院选区的民主党候选人,这是自1996年以来Fox通用选票民调中任一政党获得的最高比例。
- •MSNOW采访的北卡罗来纳州选民将战争的$37.5 billion成本及其与油价上涨的关联列为主要不满来源。
- •共和党策略师Susan del Percio将伊朗冲突与以往的“forever wars”作对比,认为政府尚未充分解释美国卷入其中的理由。

MSNOW周四播出了一段节目,北卡罗来纳州选民在节目中描述了他们对与伊朗战争及其所称随之而来的经济后果的“angst”。一名自称支持President Donald Trump的女性表示,她来自一个支持特朗普的家庭,而这个家庭已对他的表现感到“disillusioned”。
该节目是在一场关于战争的小组讨论中播出的。记者Molly Jong-Fast指出,“Politico had a poll that came out yesterday, and it showed that 1 in 5 self-identified MAGA voters wants this war over today.” 主持人Antonia Hylton表示,特朗普试图“rhetorically work his way out of accountability on this”,并提到他最近声称,尽管“voters are stressed about gas prices”,“they're not unsupportive of the war.”
MSNOW采访的北卡罗来纳州选民给出的回应与总统的说法相矛盾。他们的评论也凸显出,政府对这场战争的处理不仅被选民视为外交政策问题,也被视为经济问题,因为选民正在把军事成本与家庭开支放在一起权衡。
“My opinion on the war,” 一名女性说,“It's an unnecessary war that should never have taken place.”
当另一名受访者被问及这场战争不断上升的$37.5 billion成本是否本可以用于其他需求时,她回答说,“Roads, schools, lower prices, anything but this.”
第三名女性明显情绪激动,她的回答反映出一些MAGA选民对当前局势的挫败感。被问及这场战争是否以任何方式改善了她的生活时,她摇头说,“No. For one thing, it causes me angst. Makes me angry. I'm very disillusioned. My entire family is disillusioned. And we are and were Trump supporters.”
共和党策略师Susan del Percio表示,这种反应并不令她意外。她将当前冲突与早先的“forever wars”作对比,称在那些情况下,公众至少得到了美国为何卷入其中的解释。而在伊朗问题上,她说,“We entered this war for no reason that Trump can properly explain.”
Del Percio还将这场冲突与选民对燃油成本的担忧联系起来。“When we look at gas prices[,] they went up, they went up, went up, they ticked down. We never see gas prices go up, go up, tick down and then tick back up so quickly, which tells the American public that this war is directly in correlation,” 她说。
Jong-Fast表示,新的民调显示,只有三分之一的自认MAGA选民认为这场战争值得付出经济成本。她称,这较5月下降了13个百分点,当时在这一问题上,特朗普获得了超过半数MAGA选民的支持。特朗普自身基本盘内部的这种变化,是该节目聚焦自称支持者、而不仅仅关注民主党人或独立选民批评的关键原因。
Fox News的另一项民调也显示出对总统不利的数据,一名资深政治记者称这些结果是“end days for GOP”。
据Fox称,“If the election were today, 53 percent of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 46 percent the Republican. That 7-point edge is just outside the poll’s margin of error. Democrats were up by 5 points in April. Notably, 53 percent is the highest percentage either party has received on the generic House ballot in Fox News polling since 1996.”
Fox的民调还发现,“Trump’s job approval remains near a record low, more Democrats are motivated to vote, Republicans join Democrats and independents in rating the economy negatively, and 4 in 10 voters want ‘dramatic’ or ‘revolutionary’ change.” 结合MSNOW的采访,这些民调指向白宫面临的同一个压力点:特朗普能否在那些表示战争成本已在国内生活中显现的选民中维持对战争的支持。