泰勒和罗斯·莫拉莱斯·罗克托称,特朗普与“manosphere”的“非神圣联盟”正在松动
要点速览
- •迈尔斯·泰勒表示,特朗普失去了一些独立选民、保守派以及被该运动挑逗性吸引进来的男性支持者。
- •泰勒认为,特朗普不受欢迎的国内和外交政策正在让部分支持者转向离开。
- •罗斯·莫拉莱斯·罗克托表示,许多失望的男性选民可能会跳过 2026 年中期选举,这或许有利于民主党,尤其是在众议院选战中。
- •罗克托说,2028 年竞选更可能围绕愤怒与平静展开,而不是简单的温和派对进步派之争。
- •罗克托表示,特朗普将文化右派与政治右派结合起来的联盟,在其年龄、第一任期记录和移民手段引发反弹之际,正在开始松动。

唐纳德·特朗普长期受益于所谓的“manosphere”支持,甚至连前南本德市长皮特·布蒂吉格等民主党人也曾试图迎合这一群体,而女性保守派则试图建立一个相对应的“womanosphere”。但根据特朗普前国土安全部幕僚长迈尔斯·泰勒与政治组织者罗斯·莫拉莱斯·罗克托的一次最新采访——罗克托是2024年政治团体 White Dudes for Harris 的创始人——特朗普正在开始失去白人男性的支持,这种变化在低投票率选举中可能最为重要,因为即便是热情度的小幅变化,也会影响谁会出来投票。
泰勒在采访中对罗克托说:“Donald Trump 在这个国家的支持率曾经是 50 percent,这意味着他还得到了一些独立选民的支持;后来他降到 40 percent,这基本上意味着他原有的独立选民已经没了。那些人正在离开。他正在失去一些担忧的保守派。然后你从 40 到 30 percent,这就等于你实际上正在失去数百万支持者。这意味着你正在失去数百万乃至数千万的支持者,而且其中很多都是 dudes。那些人只是一些被拉进这个运动里的家伙。他们觉得支持 Donald Trump 很酷,因为这很挑衅。他们不太关注政治。他们会说,‘I don't know. Everyone hates him. Could be kind of cool to see this come back into office.’”
泰勒随后补充说,由于特朗普多项不受欢迎的国内和外交政策,“now they're not happy with what they are seeing.” 他接着询问,这种变化是否意味着一个显著的倒向时刻,以及中期选举的数据会呈现出什么迹象,以判断人们是否真的已经开始离开并转向另一边。
罗克托给出了更为审慎的分析,表示民主党有机会取得一些进展,但不会一蹴而就。
罗克托对泰勒说:“What I hope we see is more young men coming out to vote in this election cycle, because I think if we see more young men voting in this election cycle, they will probably be voting for Democrats, and I think that bodes quite well.” “I think what we are likely to see is a lot of these guys will just stay home and not vote, which will also mean that we probably do quite well in the midterms. I'm still pretty bullish on us retaking the House. I'm a little more skeptical about the Senate.”
他预计特朗普的许多 manosphere 支持者会在 2026 年中期选举中不参与投票,但也认为他们在 2028 年的竞选中仍可能成为争夺对象。
罗克托对泰勒解释说:“I think how we talk is going to matter. I've been saying this a lot over the last six months. The 2028 election isn't going to be decided in a fight between moderates and progressives. It's going to be between people who are angry and people who aren't angry. And I think the candidates who are angry and can show that anger, and can show that they are willing to do something to completely shake up the system — I think that's who we're going to end up with as a nominee.”
在前文谈话中,泰勒把 manosphere 网红 Andrew Tate 近期被捕描述为一个隐喻,“because the rest of the MAGA manosphere is looking around and saying, ‘I don't know if I want to be a part of this.’ Turns out these guys are losers, and they might be corrupt losers, and they might be getting us sent to jail with the things that they're doing and recommending.”
罗克托同意泰勒的看法,并表示:“as we've learned with folks like Andrew Tate — who spent a lot of time during the [former President Joe] Biden years not in the United States — we know that it's extremely important, and we also know that these far-right movements find a home in far-right culture. And I think what Donald Trump was able to do in both elections that he won is unite a group of people that we'd never seen someone on the right unite before.”
这位组织者补充说:“The cultural right and the political right, for many, many years, had never really been able to get united to build power together. And what Donald Trump did at its core was unite those two groups of folks in a very unholy union. And what you're starting to see is that union starting to fray as he gets a little bit older, as people remember what the first term was like, and as folks are realizing that maybe he is going a little too far. You know, [far right podcaster] Joe Rogan was one of the first folks on the cultural right to start talking about the administration's immigration policy. And I think it would be a mistake to say that we're going to get all those folks back overnight because of his overstepping. But it has created an opportunity, because many of those folks might be saying, ‘You know what? We do think we should deport criminals, but we don't like it when it's being done this way. We don't like it when people are getting shot in the streets of Minnesota and Houston and cities across the United States. We don't like it when masked people show up in our communities and just kidnap folks who haven't done anything wrong.’”
总体而言,manosphere 因助长有毒行为而长期受到广泛谴责。3月,Irish Times 撰稿人 Kathy Sheridan 在评论纪录片人 Louis Theroux 的电影《Inside the Manosphere》时,概括了这种普遍看法。
Sheridan 写道:“Watch again and the soulless, ignorant young men become savagely wounded children with podcasts, millions of social media followers and a guru in the shape of the alleged rapist and sex trafficker, Andrew Tate,”