唐纳德·特朗普总统领导下的共和党在选前民调中的表现如此糟糕，以至于分析师们开始质疑民调本身是否存在问题。如果数据准确，特朗普可能面临比其第一任期时更为严酷的中期选举惩罚——2018年，民主党在众议院赢得40个席位，尽管在参议院失去了2个席位。2026年11月选民投票时，众议院全部435个席位以及数十个州长职位都将改选。

弗吉尼亚大学政治中心无党派时事通讯Sabato's Crystal Ball的主编Kyle Kondik在周二发布于X的帖子中直接回应了这一问题。

"To be clear, I am concerned about polls being loaded up for Ds (and I note some of those concerns on a couple of newsy polls in my piece today that otherwise moves a lot of races toward Ds)," Kondik写道。"But we also have to be open to the possibility that this is 2018 on steroids."

在Sabato's Crystal Ball网站发布的分析中，Kondik进一步阐述了自己的立场，宣布了一系列向民主党方向调整的评级。该通讯的评级将各场竞选从“稳民主党”到“稳共和党”进行分级，“胜负难分”则保留给没有明显热门的竞争。

"We also are pushing Ohio's open gubernatorial race as well as Gov. Joe Lombardo's (R-NV) reelection bid from Leans Republican to Toss-up," Kondik写道。"We have resisted making this pair of moves for months because of the Buckeye State's generic GOP lean as well as Lombardo's incumbency, but we can no longer justify looking at the Republicans as favorites in either race given broader trends. Republicans have had big spending edges in both races but they still both appear highly competitive."

俄亥俄州的这一转变分量尤其重。该州曾是著名的总统选举风向标，奥巴马曾两次在该州获胜，但在2016年和2020年均支持特朗普，Kondik的团队正是以这一右倾倾向为由，数月来一直搁置此项调整。Lombardo曾任克拉克县警长，于2022年首次当选，他将在近几次总统选举中均以微弱差距决定胜负的摇摆州内华达面对选民。

在上周接受AlterNet就2026年中期选举采访时，Kondik剖析了不利于特朗普政党的各项因素。

"It's primarily the president's weak approval rating combined with the usual difficulty that the presidential party has in a midterm," Kondik告诉AlterNet。"I also think there may be even more for voters to react to in 2026 compared to even 2018, because Trump has acted as more of an imperial president and there is more dissatisfaction both with the economy as well as the president's foreign policy choices."

在被问及将特朗普2026年的处境与类似情况下过往总统进行比较时，Kondik指出了几点重要的相似之处。

"Generally speaking, a president who is this unpopular should see his party lose a lot of ground in Congress," 他说。"That said, Joe Biden also had poor approval in 2022, but Republicans didn't do all that well—they flipped the House but not the Senate. However, the Republican lead in the generic ballot was not as large as the Democratic lead is now." 所谓“普选票倾向”（generic ballot）——即询问选民会支持民主党还是共和党国会候选人的调查问题——是衡量全国中期选举环境的常用指标。

今年6月，无党派监督机构Common Cause“投票与公平代表项目”政策总监Susannah Goodman警告称，特朗普可能试图干预在各州和地方层面管理的中期选举，以为其政党操纵选举。

Goodman表示，本届政府"has been trying to compel states to turn their voter rolls over to the federal government and to consolidate all of that in a mega database."。她指出，多个州已拒绝交出包含社会安全号码和驾照号码等个人身份信息的未经遮蔽的选民名册。

"Common Cause and our partners have intervened in, I think, 17 of those cases on behalf of voters," 她说。

Goodman补充说，法院迄今站在抵制各州一边："I don't believe there has been a single case, Dan — correct me if I'm wrong — where, when the state has resisted and claimed they are not going to turn these voter rolls over, the court has dismissed the case or compelled the states to turn them over. The government has not had a compelling reason, and the states have won. So when states fight back, they win. We have been involved in that litigation. That is another huge power grab by the administration. It is also an illegal power grab, and when we have pushed back, we have won."