By Isa Jane D. Acabal

Maynilad Water Services, Inc.的股价上周下跌，原因是投资者在公司纳入菲律宾证券交易所指数（PSEi）前锁定收益，而厄尔尼诺和拟议中的公用事业部门改革也加大了卖压，分析师称。

Maynilad是Pangilinan领导的特许经营商，为马尼拉都会区西半部供水，在其纳入指数前已完成菲律宾市场近年来规模最大的首次公开募股（IPO）之一。

菲律宾证券交易所（PSE）数据显示，7月27日至31日期间，Maynilad是成交最活跃的第四只股票，成交额达P2.04 billion，期间共有106.81 million股易手。该股周五收于P18.80/股，较一周前的P19.46下跌3.4%。这一表现逊于基准PSEi同期0.7%的跌幅，也弱于工业板块指数4.7%的跌幅。

尽管本周回落，Maynilad股价年初至今仍上涨11.2%，跑赢PSEi的3%涨幅以及工业板块6.6%的跌幅。

The First Resources Management and Securities Corp.股票交易员Jervin De Celis将此次下跌主要归因于公司IPO后表现强劲后的获利了结。他还提到，美国联邦储备维持利率不变所带来的更广泛避险情绪，以及总统最近国情咨文（SONA）释放的政策信号。

“Next is the broader risk-off pressure tied to the unchanged Fed decision and SONA follow-through on power sector policy, which weighed on utilities generally,” Mr. De Celis在电子邮件中说。

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.在7月27日发表第五次SONA时，呼吁国会修订Republic Act No. 9136，即2001年的Electric Power Industry Reform Act（EPIRA），并禁止将系统损耗费及相应的增值税（VAT）转嫁给消费者。

DragonFi Securities, Inc.股票研究分析师Franco M. Fernandez表示，市场对厄尔尼诺可能影响供水的持续担忧，也拖累了Maynilad股价。

据国家气象局称，当前弱至中等强度的厄尔尼诺预计将加强，并持续到2027年上半年。

“Sentiment may have also been dampened by President Marcos’ SONA, which touched on tax and power sector reforms and served as a reminder to the market that government regulation remains one of the biggest risks for utilities,” Mr. Fernandez在Viber消息中说。

De Celis还提到，在最新一次PSEi再平衡前，市场存在典型的“buy the rumor, sell the news”布局。

“Since the heaviest passive-fund buying typically clusters on the rebalancing date itself, not the announcement,” he said.

自周一起，这家由Pangilinan领导的水务特许经营商在PSEi中取代了Converge ICT Solutions, Inc.。

“Market sentiment around Maynilad’s PSEi inclusion was mixed to negative during the week, despite the news itself being widely anticipated and largely priced in ahead of the official announcement,” Mr. Fernandez said.

他表示，PSEi再平衡期间的更高成交量，为投资者提供了锁定收益而非重新买入的机会。

“This implies the lingering overhang of El Niño concerns over water supply outweighed the positive optics of index inclusion, as investors used the liquidity to reduce exposure,” he added.

尽管短期走弱，De Celis表示，Maynilad纳入PSEi验证了分析师的增长预期，因收入增长和利润率预测改善，目标价已从P22.43上调至P23.72。

“Maynilad’s PSEi inclusion is primarily a signal of strong institutional demand and improved visibility, rather than a call for fundamental re-rating,” Mr. Fernandez said.

“It should still support the stock’s price in the long run, as buying pressure comes from two channels: index-tracking funds now required to hold it, and PERA account holders, since PSEi membership also makes Maynilad eligible for PERA investments,” he added.

First Metro Investment Corp.研究主管Cristina S. Ulang表示，Maynilad纳入PSEi、具有吸引力的股息收益率以及防御性业务特征，继续支撑该股的长期投资逻辑。

本周，De Celis表示，投资者应关注被动基金再平衡活动、Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas下一次政策会议、美国联邦储备的动向，以及与中东紧张局势相关的油价波动。

Fernandez表示，投资者还应关注Maynilad的第二季度和上半年业绩，以及管理层对厄尔尼诺相关风险的评估，因Angat Dam水位继续下降。

De Celis认为，近期支撑位在P18至P18.50。

“I’d now treat P19-P19.10 as the level to reclaim on the upside, with P19.30-P19.50 as the next resistance,” he said.

Fernandez将支撑位设在P18，近期阻力位设在P19至P19.20。