新闻加密货币Zoomex X Space 回顾 Fernando Llorente 的世界杯决赛小组讨论及西班牙对阿根廷预测

Zoomex X Space 回顾 Fernando Llorente 的世界杯决赛小组讨论及西班牙对阿根廷预测

作者: Coincentral·

要点速览

  • Fernando Llorente 认为,英格兰在 1-0 领先后以五名后卫深度防守的决定,让阿根廷主导了控球并最终获得机会;他提到英格兰在最后 15 分钟的控球率仅为 12%。
  • Llorente 称赞西班牙在对阵法国前保持镇定,称更衣室氛围轻松,这种心态转化为场上的控球和对抗优势。
  • Rodri 在本届赛事中恢复最佳状态被视为西班牙最重要的优势之一,Llorente 特别提到他出色的传球稳定性和中场身体存在感。
  • 小组讨论了金靴奖竞争,指出在三名同为 8 球的球员中,Lionel Messi 是热门,因为 Kylian Mbappé 和 Erling Haaland 已经被淘汰。
  • Llorente 对西班牙 2-1 获胜的预测与一项慈善倡议相关;如果预测正确,承诺捐助将从 1,000 USDT 提高至 5,000 USDT,用于支持在委内瑞拉受困的人群。
Zoomex X Space 回顾 Fernando Llorente 的世界杯决赛小组讨论及西班牙对阿根廷预测

Fernando Llorente 表示,西班牙在对阵法国一役中得到的最重要经验,正是英格兰在对阵阿根廷时放弃的原则:控住球。在 Llorente 看来,控球能让球队掌握比赛节奏,并在不退守到本方禁区的情况下完成防守。

他表示,英格兰在 1-0 领先后,开始以五名后卫和一名疲惫的单前锋深度防守。阿根廷随后在接下来的 30 分钟里吸收局面、等待空间,并在机会出现时加以利用。Llorente 认为,英格兰拥有足够的阵容深度,本可以选择另一种方式。

这就是 Llorente 在世界杯决赛前夕传递的信息。当时西班牙正准备面对阿根廷,而他对西班牙 2-1 获胜的预测已经被记录在案。他的观点是,最好的防守方式就是用控球来防守。

这一框架使 Zoomex World Cup Edition X Space 不只是一次比分预测环节,而更像是对顶级球队如何应对压力的战术复盘。对 Llorente 而言,决赛的关键对比不仅是西班牙对阿根廷,也是在控球主导下保持控制,与过早退守保护领先所带来的风险之间的对比。

本场活动也为贯穿该系列每一集的五部分慈善倡议画上句号。由于 Llorente 预测西班牙将以 2-1 获胜,已承诺的 1,000 USDT 将用于支持在委内瑞拉因困境受到影响的人群;这是他的朋友近期向他提起的一项事业。如果预测正确,该金额将提高至 5,000 USDT。

西班牙在重大比赛前的冷静

在讨论中,Fernando Lillo Aranda 多次回到许多西班牙支持者在世界杯决赛前提出的问题:这样一支年轻球队,如何能在面对法国和阿根廷这样的对手时保持如此镇定。

Llorente 表示,在为 Dazón 和西班牙电视台报道赛事期间,他曾在西班牙对阵法国之前与西班牙队内人士交流。他们对更衣室氛围的描述,与他后来在球场上看到的情况相吻合。

“Before the game they already told me that in the changing room they were calm, that they were talking about their things, jokes, stories and such. It surprises me, the attitude so relaxed they have before such an important game, and then how much they came out, because in that sense we were much more involved than the French in the game. They came out winning all the duels. It seemed to me that we were much more involved than them.”

开球前,Llorente 表示,他曾预计西班牙会在对阵法国时遇到困难,因为法国前锋拥有速度和进攻质量,包括 Mbappé、Olise、Dembélé 和 Barcola。他还将法国的反击能力,以及中场丢球后形成转换进攻的危险,视为主要风险。

但他说,西班牙通过控制球权限制了法国的优势,并阻止法国以其偏好的节奏比赛。

“These guys are surprising me. The ability they have to play these types of games in which there is so much pressure, they play as if they were playing with friends, with a naturalness, with a confidence that escapes me.”

Llorente 还称赞了 Rodri,称他在本届赛事期间一直在恢复到最佳状态。他将西班牙对法国的第二个进球描述为球队整体风格的体现。

“From the goal, defense, midfield, how they break the middle, Fabián, the pass, the wall of Porro. It was pure caviar.”

他说,西班牙的位置轮转——后卫进入中场、中场球员插入进攻区域、球员不断交换角色——让对手很难明确分配防守职责。

英格兰的退守与阿根廷的回应

本场讨论中最详细的部分之一聚焦于英格兰不敌阿根廷的比赛,该场比赛发生在前一晚。Llorente 将这场比赛用作一个例子,说明球队在试图守住对阿根廷的领先优势时应避免什么。

“I think that England made a mistake. In the end, you score a goal and you think that with that it is already done. And in the end what you cannot allow yourself is to get behind and let Argentina dominate you. They had players on the bench, an incredible squad to have done something different. Players who were still tired, I would have brought players up quickly. Having had players up quickly could have put Argentina in serious trouble. Saka, Rashford left too late, Madueke. Players who could have killed them on the counter, and yet they took out five defenders, 5-4-1, which in the end, apart from Harry Kane up there, who was already very tired, without a counter-attack exit.”

Miguel Serrano TV 用比赛数据支持了这一观点。最后 15 分钟,英格兰控球率为 12%,阿根廷为 88%。最后 10 分钟,英格兰只完成了两次有效传球,其中一次来自门将 Jordan Pickford。

Miguel 表示,英格兰在比赛后段的防守型换人向阿根廷传递了清晰信号。用他的话说,这个信号不是“我们正在保护领先”,而是“来进攻我吧,因为我就待在这里”。阿根廷对这一信号作出了回应。

Gran Mussama 将英格兰的做法与 Diego Someone 的 Atlético Madrid 进行比较。

“When he is winning, when he goes 1-0 with a very tight result, they fall back and the opposing team sees it. Either a guy with a good shot or someone scores a goal and they keep closing until he scores.”

在 Gran Mussama 看来,退得更深只会鼓励对手施加更大压力。

谈到阿根廷的优势时,Llorente 将 Lionel Messi、Enzo Fernandez 和 Alexis Mac Allister 列为球队最具影响力的球员。谈到 Mac Allister 的角色时,他强调了那些可能较少受到公众关注的工作。

“Enzo yesterday moved the team as he wanted, always seeing when Messi was alone, and at the last minute how he went to the right wing because there Messi was all the time alone, and from there they raised the whole play.”

他补充说:“The opportunities he had yesterday to score a goal was incredible. It is going to be a very complicated game because they have that ability to get out of trouble. If you give them the smallest minimum option to return to the game they are very dangerous.”

随后,Llorente 概述了西班牙在世界杯决赛中的重点。

“We do not have to get into their game. They have to leave with the same mentality they had against France. Being ready in the duels, reading where the balls can fall to get there before them. Keep dominating the game and not give them too many options. Don’t make mistakes, that’s the main thing in a final like this.”

前锋技术的细节

另一个技术性环节围绕禁区内的前锋跑动展开。在 Lionel Messi 为阿根廷头球扳平比分后,Fernando Lillo Aranda 询问在 Lautaro Martínez 据称被盯防的情况下,这样的进球如何发生,Fernando Llorente 随后讨论了前锋抢点传中的机制。

Llorente 表示,如果时机合适,防守球员哪怕最轻微的身体接触,也可能破坏前锋完成射门的能力。

“When the strikers enter the area, what complicates your life the most is to have the defender already touching you and bothering you? If before the centre, to anything, you give a little touch to the striker, he is dead. When it happened to me playing, that is the worst thing they can do to you. You have to try to gain space so that the defender does not bother you, because if when you are jumping the minimum touch already makes it very difficult for you to finish.”

结合自己的职业经历,Llorente 表示,他的身体条件通常能帮助他在禁区内创造空间。即便如此,经验丰富的后卫仍能在头球或射门前,用一次时机准确的触碰阻止进攻机会。

“I remember that when I was going to the shot, suddenly the side from the opposite side comes at you. I always tried to look for the back of the defenders. When the side comes on the other side that you do not see it and gives you a little touch before the shot, you were dead. There were sides that did it very well. Very smart people who bothered you at that moment and you have nothing to do.”

他还解释了防守球员应如何在禁区内应对前锋。

“When you are defending and the striker enters the area, do not focus only on the centre. Do not neglect. The striker is going to try to take your back and take advantage of that. You have to be touching him, grabbing, looking at the centre and the player who is going to score. Because a lot of people accumulate, one thinks it belongs to one defender, the other thinks it belongs to the other, and in the end the striker finishes without a mark.”

Llorente 表示,这一过程与阿根廷的扳平进球相似。当禁区内有多名球员且没有明确盯防对象时,Alexis Mac Allister 后插上进入禁区,并在并非场上最高球员之一的情况下获得了无人盯防的位置。

Van Dijk、Chiellini 与防守挑战

在快问快答环节中,Fernando Lillo Aranda 问 Llorente,本届世界杯中他最不愿面对哪名后卫。Llorente 立即点名 Virgil van Dijk,理由是他的力量和运动能力。

“When I went to the Premier League, I was very surprised by how strong all the defenders were, they were all big, even bigger than me, stronger. He seemed to me to be a barbarity. Not only how strong he was, how fast he was, because he’s very fast in the long run. He’s a very complete defender.”

随后,Llorente 回忆了自己效力 Swansea 对阵 Southampton 时与 Van Dijk 的首次交手。

“In my first game, I was at Swansea against him, and he was at Southampton. In the first clash that happened, he put his elbow in my ribs and fractured one of my ribs. I found out later. At that moment, I held on as best I could. He fell to the ground, I did my best, but the pain I was in was terrible. And then I played the next game, I scored my first goal against City, and I had to stop for a month because I couldn’t take the pain anymore.”

他说,从西班牙足球转到英超后,他需要适应英超的身体对抗强度;在西班牙足球中,他认为身体接触通常更容易处理。

“I told my teammates to shoot me from below, because from above it was complicated.”

虽然 Van Dijk 以身高、速度和力量突出,但 Llorente 表示,Giorgio Chiellini 因其持续贴身盯防带来了另一种难题。

“The first time I faced him was in an Italy-Spain, in a friendly. It was terrible. How does that mark you? Surely, that’s the most sticky one, the one that hits you the most. The other one is stronger, but he doesn’t hit you as much. Chiellini is exaggerated. He doesn’t let you breathe.”

Llorente 表示,他在 Juventus 与 Chiellini、Leonardo Bonucci 和 Andrea Barzagli 做了两个赛季队友,这让他直接感受到了意大利防守的高水准。

Rodri、Busquets 与西班牙中场标准

Gran Mussama 请 Llorente 比较巅峰期的 Rodri 与巅峰期的 Sergio Busquets。Llorente 表示,直接比较对两名球员都不公平。

“We can be talking about the two best midfielders in the world. At that time, we also not only had Busi, but Xabi Alonso, we had many options there, not just Busi. But Rodri is impressive. Unlike Busi, perhaps he has more travel, he is physically stronger. It is incredible how he is able to be everywhere. He also has the reliability in passes. I think he has more than 90% success in passes, which is incredible. I think he is the one with the most in the world.”

Llorente 表示,Rodri 恢复最佳状态已成为西班牙在本届赛事中的最大优势之一。

“Perhaps it is the great news of Spain. Seeing Rodri again at his best is one of the keys for me.”

在此前存在伤病担忧后,Rodri 状态提升的时间点,与西班牙在本届赛事中表现最强的比赛相吻合。

Llorente 还称赞了 Mikel Oyarzabal,提到他的技术能力和团队优先的态度。

“I am in love with how he plays, and more of how he plays, with his attitude. He is a boy who does not think about himself, he thinks only about the collective, about the team, about working. I love how he moves, how many times he goes down between the lines, helping the team to get out from behind. In the end, he gathers a lot of people in the centre of the field. The positions are rotated and that makes it very difficult for the defenders. Many times they do not know who to mark.”

Llorente 将 Oyarzabal 的跑动和西班牙的战术灵活性,与他对现代足球的更广泛观察联系起来。

“Nowadays they work a lot on the tactical issue, they tell them more or less what to do in the field, more mechanical movements, and a little creativity is taken away from the player. In Spain, I see that they interpret the game very well. They let each one take out the best that he has, or his creativity inside the field.”

足球如何发生变化

Juan 问道,现代足球是否比 Llorente 球员时代更加注重身体对抗,还是整体比赛质量提高后,个人技术的空间变少了。

Llorente 表示,足球发生变化,是因为准备、体能训练和对细节的重视变得更加先进。

“The details are taken care of more and more. All the players already have nutritionists, their diets, their individualised work, which before was impossible. I remember when I started, we would go out to the field and we would start shooting without warming up, without doing anything. Today you already have a pre-activation in the gym, then you go out, you have another warm-up when you go out to the field. They take great care of the details.”

他说,这些变化已经改变了这项运动。

“Football is evolving. The fact of taking care of the details also makes you train more and better. The players are better physically, they take better care of themselves, everything is much more professionalised. It is more physical, you run more and every time everyone goes further to the limit. That is clear. That is why there is also so much equality, despite the fact that there are better teams than others.”

回顾自己作为传统中锋的角色,Llorente 表示,能够顶住长传并把队友带入进攻的身体型前锋已经越来越少见。

“Every time I see a long ball and there is a duel, normally the defenders win it. The one who plays from the back is a striker. It is complicated today to see a striker who, every time there is a long ball, keeps it and is able to give the team a way out from above.”

他补充说,如今许多顶级俱乐部都试图效仿 Barcelona 基于控球的后场组织模式,从后场发起进攻。因此,他说,现在许多进球来自组织阶段的失误,而不是更传统的进攻套路。

预测、金靴讨论与 Messi 的未来

小组讨论最后分享了对世界杯决赛的预测。Llorente 已经在 FIFA 平台提交了西班牙 2-1 获胜的预测。Miguel Serrano TV 预测谨慎的 1-0 胜利,提到 Johannesburg 2010,并强调在足球最重要的比赛前管理预期的重要性。Juan 预测 3-1 获胜,而 Gran Mussama 预测,如果西班牙早早进球,比分将是 4-0。Fernando Lillo Aranda 表示,如果这一预测成真,他愿意在 Gran Mussama 选择的任何地方请他吃牛排。

Gran Mussama 后来将预测改为西班牙 4-1,Lionel Messi 进球。

“Since he’s retiring as the best in history and didn’t play in the World Cup.”

这一预测被记录下来。

随后,讨论转向金靴奖争夺。Miguel Serrano TV 表示,Kylian Mbappé、Lionel Messi 和 Erling Haaland 各进 8 球。随着 Haaland 和 Mbappé 已被淘汰,Messi 是唯一仍有竞争资格的球员,因此成为该奖项热门。Mikel Oyarzabal 已进 5 球,需要在决赛中上演帽子戏法才能追平。

小组成员表示,如果西班牙赢得世界杯,他们可以接受 Messi 获得金靴,同时也承认 Oyarzabal 在决赛中打进三球的可能性不大。

Miguel 还讨论了围绕阿根廷、裁判和社交媒体叙事的持续争论。他提到 Lionel Messi 在阿根廷于 2019 Copa América 半决赛出局后的评论,当时 Messi 批评腐败以及他认为有利于巴西的裁判判罚。Miguel 表示,目前关于阿根廷的许多争论,与 Messi 过去提出的担忧相呼应。

Miguel 表示,足球历史经常重演,而夺冠球队不可避免地会成为不同叙事竞争的焦点。

对话最后讨论了 Messi 的未来,以及他再次参加 FIFA World Cup 的可能性。到 2030 年,Messi 预计将为 41 或 42 岁,因此小组普遍认为他再次参加世界杯的可能性不大。Gran Mussama 表示,Major League Soccer 并未保持同等竞争强度,而 Juan 认为,如果阿根廷赢得这场决赛,Messi 的历史地位就已经完整。他表示,2028 Copa América 可能是更现实的国家队目标。

Zoomex Space 的主线主题

在整个 Zoomex World Cup Edition X Space 中,足球分析反复回到准备、心态和执行。核心主题是,成功的球队即使在压力下也会坚持自己的计划。

Llorente 将英格兰对阿根廷的换人视为一种因焦虑而非自信改变策略的例子。他说,英格兰的战术决定没有保持控制,反而招致阿根廷持续施压,并改变了场上两队接收到的信息。

他将这种做法与西班牙在对阵法国前的心态进行对比。Llorente 描述了一个充满平静交谈、玩笑和自信的更衣室,尽管比赛意义重大。在他看来,这种氛围反映出球队信任自己的准备工作。

他说,无论比分如何,计划都必须仍然是计划。无论是 1-0 领先还是 1-0 落后,西班牙的身份都不应改变,因为重要工作已经通过准备、训练和有纪律的决策完成。

“You have to play a game like the one we played against France. We practically did not make mistakes. Because if you lose the ball in a field where they can catch you in some counterattack with spaces, they are still a dangerous team.”

Llorente 表示,有纪律的执行就是成功落实原定计划。在压力下偏离计划,可能为阿根廷这样的顶级球队创造机会。

这也让小组的慈善和预测环节与足球讨论形成了叙事联系。比分预测是活动形式的一部分,但 Llorente 的分析始终回到同一个场上考验:西班牙能否复制他在对法国比赛中所称赞的冷静、控球和决策。

Gran Mussama 的 4-0 预测仍被记录在案,晚餐赌约也是如此。Llorente 对西班牙的预测也继续与慈善承诺相连;如果他的预测正确,将有 5,000 USDT 指定用于委内瑞拉人群。

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