距离 2026 年美国中期选举仅剩三个半月，Donald Trump 总统正寄望于把民主党人贴上“共产主义者”的标签，以动员足够多选民维持共和党对国会的控制。然而，特朗普在一系列民调中的支持率仍然疲弱，一名共和党内部人士告诉 Politico：“We're preparing for the bottom to fall out.”

民主党策略师 Simon Rosenberg 是全国性竞选的资深人士，曾在 Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee 任职，并创立了中左翼倡议组织 NDN。他在 7 月下旬做客由 Greg Sargent 主持的 The New Republic 的 “The Daily Blast” 播客时表达了谨慎乐观。Rosenberg 认为，特朗普的政治包袱仍在扩大，不过他和 Sargent 都承认，从现在到 11 月之间仍有许多不确定因素。中期选举周期历来会惩罚总统所在政党，而特朗普的支持率走势正被拿来与 2018 年相比较；当年共和党失去了 40 个众议院席位。

Sargent 提到他所称 Politico“really striking”的报道时问 Rosenberg：“I'm just not ready to get that optimistic ... Are you there yet or not? And why?”

“No, I think we have a shot here, right?” Rosenberg 回答说。“I mean, it's a year of opportunity for us. How well we seize it is really going to be in part up to us. They've created a situation where he's already fallen very far, much further than where he was in 2018 at this point. The national climate is plus seven or so, or above, for us, which means that the House should flip. We have polls showing Sherrod Brown up — independent polls showing Sherrod Brown up in Ohio, and Mary Peltola up in Alaska, and Josh Turek up in Iowa. I mean, these are states that Trump won by more than ten points.”

Rosenberg 和 Sargent 随后讨论了共和党在本轮选举中面临的一系列政治逆风，从伊朗战争到经济和移民问题。

Rosenberg 指出，他预计另一个问题会在选举日前削弱共和党的处境：医疗保险保费上涨。他说：“Both the private plans and the public health care plans — people are going to start getting notices of the premium increases,”。“And what we're seeing in the data is that even private plans are going to see significant cost increases, and that 50 percent of businesses have said in surveys that they're going to pass those cost increases on to workers in their companies. And so, this is all going to happen in October, right before the election — that tens and tens of millions of people are going to be formally notified that their premiums are going to increase because of Donald Trump and the Republicans, right before the election.” 医疗成本长期位居选民最关切的家庭财务问题之列，而开放参保通知的时间安排可能会在竞选最后几周放大这一议题。

Rosenberg 还援引了新的数据，显示人们被取消 SNAP 福利资格的速度高于预期。他说：“You've now got potentially tens of millions of people falling into greater food insecurity than was anticipated,”。“All of these trend lines together add up to this basic reality, which is that Donald Trump and the Republicans have purposefully done extraordinary harm to the American people and to the United States itself in order to enrich themselves and their friends. And it is an extraordinary betrayal of the American people. People have figured it out.”

The New Republic 的另一篇报道详细描述了共和党内部对该党中期选举前景日益增长的私下担忧。