大型科技股财报周以一份不同寻常的成绩单收官。多数公司超过华尔街预期，但几乎所有股票都下跌，评论人士估计，两个交易日内数千亿美元市值蒸发。

四个信号比单看财报标题更能说明情况：价格反应、资金流、期权仓位和分析师修正。综合来看，它们显示出哪些公司在本周后处于更强位置，哪些公司尽管需求稳健仍遭到惩罚。

为什么本周很重要

七家大型公司在四天内发布业绩。Texas Instruments于July 21开启这一轮财报。Alphabet、Tesla、IBM和ServiceNow随后在July 22公布业绩，而Intel和SAP在July 23为这一组公司收官。

这些财报也成为对大规模人工智能资本支出的一次广泛检验，此前曾有观点呼吁在财报前降低科技股敞口。投资者希望看到证据，证明创纪录的数据中心预算正在转化为利润。自当前AI建设周期开始以来，这一问题一直笼罩着该行业；半导体和云基础设施提供商通常被视为早期收入受益者，而采用AI的企业在回报显现前面临大量前期成本。

评论人士估计，超大市值公司群体单日市值损失$800 billion，为April 2025以来最严重的此类跌幅。由于Alphabet和Tesla等公司在S&P 500和Nasdaq Composite中占有重要权重，它们财报后的下跌波及跟踪指数的基金和行业基准。

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Tesla $TSLA was down 14% today, its worst day since January 2024, while Google $GOOGL was down 7% after posting its first negative free cash flow quarter since 2004. The macro backdrop is not helping… — amit (@amitisinvesting) July 24, 2026

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Tesla $TSLA was down 14% today, its worst day since January 2024, while Google $GOOGL was down 7% after posting its first negative free cash flow quarter since 2004. The macro backdrop is not helping…

本周显示，支出指引如今对这些股票的影响已经超过单纯的盈利结果。

谁赢得了大型科技股财报周？

两家公司在本周结束后处于更强位置。Intel在公布的业绩上表现突出，而ServiceNow尽管股价反应为负，但在仓位方面显示出更强信号。

Intel

Intel交出了这一组公司中最干净利落的超预期业绩。收入增长25%至$16.1 billion，创下近15年来最快增速。每股收益为$0.42，是预期的两倍，该股盘后交易上涨超过12%。

资金流数据则更为谨慎。Chaikin Money Flow（CMF）作为机构资金流的代理指标，在财报公布前为-0.13。

Barchart显示，put/call未平仓合约比例（衡量仍持有合约的指标）为0.96。这表明相较Intel的0.6至0.75基准，偏空对冲正在上升。

分析师上调了目标价，但没有上调评级。据TipRanks，Morgan Stanley维持其$84的Hold评级，而JPMorgan维持$85的Sell评级。

ServiceNow

ServiceNow在财报公布后的交易日下跌3.7%，这一走势起初看起来偏负面。但底层细节更强。该公司盈利超过预期，订阅收入增长24.5%，并上调了展望。作为一家企业软件平台，其工作流自动化工具越来越多地与AI功能相关，ServiceNow的业绩提供了一个观察窗口：即便基础设施支出占据头条，企业客户是否仍在维持软件预算。

SERVICENOW $NOW Q2'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Subscription: $3.88B; +24.5% YoY, +23% cc 🔹 Total Revenue: $3.99B (Est. $3.92B) 🟢; +24% YoY, +22.5% cc 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.90 (Est. $0.86) 🟢 🔹 cRPO: $13.20B (Est. ~$13.03B) 🟢; +21% YoY, +21.5% cc Q3 Guide: 🔹 Subscription:… pic.twitter.com/7sgK7CjWS0 — Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) July 22, 2026

SERVICENOW $NOW Q2'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Subscription: $3.88B; +24.5% YoY, +23% cc 🔹 Total Revenue: $3.99B (Est. $3.92B) 🟢; +24% YoY, +22.5% cc 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.90 (Est. $0.86) 🟢 🔹 cRPO: $13.20B (Est. ~$13.03B) 🟢; +21% YoY, +21.5% cc Q3 Guide: 🔹 Subscription:… pic.twitter.com/7sgK7CjWS0

CMF下滑至-0.10，意味着大型投资者尚未确认复苏。不过，期权数据在财报公布后改善。put/call比例按成交量从0.54降至0.42，按未平仓合约从0.83降至0.80，显示看涨仓位正在积累。

Bernstein和Evercore的分析师上调目标价，而KeyBanc维持唯一一个Sell建议。仓位情况显示，财报后下跌被视为入场点。

谁输掉了本周？

表现最弱的公司有一个共同问题：市场对重资本支出的惩罚比对需求疲软的惩罚更严厉。

Tesla

Tesla未能通过全部四项测试。每股收益为$0.33，低于$0.51的共识预期；自由现金流转负；资本支出增长142%。在紧张的Tesla财报预览周之后，该股下跌14.5%，创一年多来最差单日表现。

BREAKING: Tesla $TSLA delivered a record quarter and still missed on profit. $28.24 billion in revenue, beating the $26.32 billion estimate, on record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, up 25% YOY. Adjusted EPS came in at 33 cents, well below the 51 cent estimate. Gross margin… pic.twitter.com/3o9kzLbfLJ — Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) July 22, 2026

BREAKING: Tesla $TSLA delivered a record quarter and still missed on profit. $28.24 billion in revenue, beating the $26.32 billion estimate, on record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, up 25% YOY. Adjusted EPS came in at 33 cents, well below the 51 cent estimate. Gross margin… pic.twitter.com/3o9kzLbfLJ

资金流确认了压力。CMF从-0.06恶化至-0.12，显示即便交付量创纪录，卖方压力仍在增强。

看跌期权成交量相对于看涨期权从0.78倍升至0.83倍。至少六家公司下调目标价，包括JPMorgan和UBS。

$TSLA is plunging more than 12% after a huge wave of downgrades from WS 🤯 ⚠️ Canaccord Genuity lowered Tesla's target price from $450 to $410 ⚠️ JPMorgan lowered Tesla's target price from $475 to $445 ⚠️ TD Cowen lowered Tesla's target price from $490 to $460 ⚠️ Truist… pic.twitter.com/w6ZLZyyNhT — Ming (@tslaming) July 23, 2026

$TSLA is plunging more than 12% after a huge wave of downgrades from WS 🤯 ⚠️ Canaccord Genuity lowered Tesla's target price from $450 to $410 ⚠️ JPMorgan lowered Tesla's target price from $475 to $445 ⚠️ TD Cowen lowered Tesla's target price from $490 to $460 ⚠️ Truist… pic.twitter.com/w6ZLZyyNhT

Alphabet

Alphabet公布了本周一些最强劲的数据，但仍位列输家。根据CNBC，Alphabet的July财报显示收入增长24%至$119.8 billion，Cloud收入增长82%。管理层还将2026年资本支出指引上调至最高$205 billion，该股下跌7.1%。

分析师指出，这项支出使季度自由现金流二十多年来首次转负，意味着股东正在为AI建设预先买单。

$GOOGL just delivered one of the strongest quarters of the AI cycle with Cloud revenue growing 82% and operating margins reaching 36%. But the market focused on several shock factors including another $15B capex increase in just three months, a further step-up expected in 2027… pic.twitter.com/pQ5M5nzEwA — Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) July 23, 2026

$GOOGL just delivered one of the strongest quarters of the AI cycle with Cloud revenue growing 82% and operating margins reaching 36%. But the market focused on several shock factors including another $15B capex increase in just three months, a further step-up expected in 2027… pic.twitter.com/pQ5M5nzEwA

资金流在标题反应之前已经走弱。CMF从July 20的0.14降至财报后的0.03，表明机构买家在本周已持续撤退。分析师维持Buy评级，而JPMorgan、Piper Sandler和UBS下调目标价。未平仓合约从0.68小幅升至0.70。

在AI支出受到审视数周后，押注财报大幅波动的投资者确实等来了这种波动。

三只股票本周收于中性

三家公司处于中间位置，信号指向不同方向。

Texas Instruments获得了本周范围最广的分析师目标价上调，包括JPMorgan将目标价上调至$340。作为领先的模拟芯片制造商，其元件服务于从汽车到工业设备等广泛行业，Texas Instruments常被视为AI以外更广泛半导体需求的晴雨表。但这并未阻止看跌期权成交量从0.38翻倍至0.76。与此同时，CMF改善至-0.03，表明买家吸收了获利回吐导致的下跌。整体反应较为混合。

IBM不及预期、下调指引，并遭遇最严厉的目标价下调，包括Morgan Stanley将目标价调整至$190。即便如此，该股收涨，CMF改善至-0.09，因为July 14的25%暴跌已将大部分疲弱因素计入价格。put/call比例仍偏看涨，且数位华尔街分析师仍维持更高目标价。Jefferies在业绩公布后给予Buy评级。

SAP的American Depositary Receipt（ADR，即在美国上市的德国股票版本）盈利不及预期，但云业务积压订单增长27%。

$SAP Q2'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Non-IFRS EPS: €1.59 (Est. €1.75) 🔴 🔹 Revenue: €9.88B (Est. €9.85B) 🟢; +9% YoY 🔹 Cloud Revenue: €6.28B (Est. €6.26B) 🟢; +22% YoY 🔹 Cloud ERP Suite Revenue: €5.53B; +25% YoY 🔹 Current Cloud Backlog: €22.93B; +27% YoY FY26 Guidance:… — Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) July 23, 2026

$SAP Q2'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Non-IFRS EPS: €1.59 (Est. €1.75) 🔴 🔹 Revenue: €9.88B (Est. €9.85B) 🟢; +9% YoY 🔹 Cloud Revenue: €6.28B (Est. €6.26B) 🟢; +22% YoY 🔹 Cloud ERP Suite Revenue: €5.53B; +25% YoY 🔹 Current Cloud Backlog: €22.93B; +27% YoY FY26 Guidance:…

随着投机者退出，SAP看跌期权成交量从1.99降至0.60，而对冲仓位升至1.10。消息来源称，关键分析师目标价直接来自TipRanks。

大型科技股财报周呈现出的模式很清晰：市场奖励那些承接AI支出的公司，惩罚那些开出支票的公司。下一批资金流和期权数据将显示Intel是否仍是本周最明确的赢家。