Oracle stock climbed as much as 4.5% on Wednesday after Citi analyst Tyler Radke placed the shares on positive catalyst watch and said the recent decline may have created an attractive entry point.

Citi kept its Buy rating and $330 price target on Oracle Corporation, ORCL. At the time of writing, the stock was trading around $147, well below that target.

The move came after Oracle had fallen more than 50% from its June peak to its July trough. Radke said the decline represented “four to five standard deviations” relative to Oracle’s historical volatility, compressed into just 30 to 40 trading days. Citi said that type of move is extremely unusual and may offer investors a rare opportunity.

The selloff was tied to concerns about Oracle’s heavy spending on AI infrastructure for customers including Microsoft and OpenAI, along with rising debt. Over the past five years, Oracle’s debt load has increased 60%. During that same period, free cash flow shifted from a positive $13.8 billion to negative $23.7 billion. Analysts expect Oracle to burn through another $90 billion over the next two years.

Citi says the worst may already be priced in

Despite those figures, Citi argued that much of the negative news is already reflected in the stock. The bank pointed to “insatiable” demand for AI services and Oracle’s $85 billion backlog, which it said is nearly enough to cover the company’s near-term cash needs.

Citi also lifted its revenue and earnings estimates for fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030. By 2030, the firm projects Oracle could earn $22 per share, which Citi said would represent a triple or even quadruple of current GAAP earnings.

The bank also pointed to improving credit trends. It noted that bond spreads and credit default swap spreads have begun to recover, suggesting that forced selling pressure may be easing. For investors watching the stock, that matters because Oracle’s recent slide has been driven as much by balance-sheet and capital-spending concerns as by day-to-day operating results.

Investor day and earnings could act as catalysts

Oracle is scheduled to report earnings in September and hold an investor day in late October. Citi flagged both events as possible positive catalysts.

A day before Wednesday’s trading, Oracle also presented its distributed cloud strategy at an industry summit, underscoring its enterprise AI positioning.

Broader market conditions were mixed and offered little support. The S&P 500 rose just 0.1%, while the Nasdaq was nearly flat, indicating that Oracle’s move was largely stock-specific.

Within enterprise software, SAP fell more than 3% after UBS downgraded the stock to Neutral, which may have made Oracle appear relatively more attractive on the day.

Oracle’s consensus analyst rating remains Buy. The stock’s 52-week range is $114.50 to $345.72, leaving it well below its recent highs.

At a price-to-earnings ratio of under 25 and five-year growth estimated at 27% annually, Citi’s $330 target implies the stock could rise materially from current levels.