Bitcoin (BTC) traded around 81,558 USD on Saturday, losing 0.73% during the day, ending a volatile week during which the asset briefly fell below 80,000 USD before recovering. Earlier in the week, BTC reached a weekly high above 84,000 USD, but had trouble maintaining these gains as stronger US economic data fueled expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Bitcoin's sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy has made rate expectations one of the most closely watched macroeconomic inputs for this asset, as higher rates increase the appeal of instruments yielding returns compared to non-yielding assets such as cryptocurrencies. It was this relationship that put the week's central bank statements in the spotlight for investors.

Warsh's Statements Alleviate Fears of Rate Hikes

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh avoided any mention of further rate hikes during a discussion with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. "I don't prejudge meetings," he said.

The markets read this tone as dovish. CME Group's FedWatch Tool, which derives market-implied rate probabilities from futures prices, showed the probability of a 25 basis point hike in October at 15%, down from 27% a day earlier. Economist Robin Brooks stated that the October meeting "pretty much is off the table" in the context of a hike, pointing to fears of tension in the AI sector as a factor making the markets more receptive to a dovish message.

US stock indices were mixed on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.5%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries reached 5.13% before settling at 5.07%. In a post on platform X on Thursday, The Kobeissi Letter stated that stock weakness has been the only source of bond yield corrections since August and that the stock market may be in a "bull-bear" phase.

Cryptocurrency markets stabilized on Friday alongside a rebound in South Korean stocks. The KOSPI Composite Index closed at 5,668 points, up 2% during the day, but down 8.3% for the entire week.

Uneven ETF Flows

American spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of 82.39 million USD on October 16, of which BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for 71.78 million USD, according to data provided by Wu Blockchain:

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Recorded $82.39 Million in Net Outflows, While Spot Ethereum ETFs Saw $69.68 Million in Net Outflows on October 16ET). On October 16 (ET), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $82.39 million, led by BlackRock's IBIT with $71.78 million in net…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 17, 2026

Flows were uneven throughout the week. On October 12, funds recorded outflows of 65.4 million USD, followed by inflows of 175.7 million USD on October 13, and withdrawals of around 261.4 million USD on October 14. Since spot ETFs channel institutional capital directly into Bitcoin, the daily flow totals have become a widely tracked gauge of institutional demand for this asset.

Ethereum investment products also recorded net outflows of 69.68 million USD on October 16.

Key Chart Levels

On the chart, BTC/USD maintained most of the levels it had reclaimed after bouncing off 80,000 USD on Thursday. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin posted another daily close above the 50 EMA and 50 SMA — two moving averages that investors use to assess trend direction — and stated that buyers remain in control as long as BTC stays above 80,500 USD:

Another daily close above the 50 EMA and 50 SMA for Bitcoin. $BTC buyers are still in control, and as long as BTC holds above $80,500, the upside remains the max pain.

— Ted (@TedPillows) October 16, 2026

The next key level is 80,500 USD, and the upside target is 83,000 USD.

In other news from the sector, Circle reported revenues of around 1.4 billion USD for the first half of 202 and is scheduled to present its third-quarter report on November 4.

With the October Fed meeting and Circle's report still ahead, investors are now watching whether renewed ETF demand can lift Bitcoin towards 83,000 USD, while further withdrawals could exert pressure on the 80,000 USD level.

Source: CoinCentral