@Crypto_Briefing•21 minuten geleden
A Polymarket contract settles on a number anyone can look up, free.
IMF PortWatch counts the ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The 7-day average of that count is what the contract resolves on.
The line is a 7-day average of 60 transit calls, about two thirds of the strait's pre-collapse average of 91 a day. Traffic collapsed on March 1 2026. The average fell below the line on March 3 and has not reached it since. Best week 34 on June 30, latest reading 12 on July 19.
In ships: the line takes 420 transit calls in a week. The latest week carried 85.
Then: did the daily price move with the daily count? We fixed 43 tests before looking. None survived correction at any lag. The headline pairing is a coin flip: r = +0.07, n = 64, p = 0.56.
We found nothing, and that is what we report. At this sample size the test is not strong enough to rule a moderate link out. Absence of evidence, not evidence of absence.
Every number is a count of ships, never a price or a direction.
The dataset behind it is Vera.
