GrayscaleはHYPEがフィンテック同業他社と比べてなお割安と指摘
重要ポイント
- •GrayscaleはHyperliquidの評価に1トークン当たり利益モデルを用い、上場企業で使われる1株当たり利益の考え方と比較した。
- •同社はHyperliquidの2027年利益を約10億ドルと予想しており、2025年比で約20%増になるとみている。
- •Hyperliquidとの提携におけるCoinbaseの公式USDC財務デプロイヤーとしての役割は、プロトコルに追加の収益源をもたらす可能性がある。
- •Grayscaleは、HYPEの流通供給量が2027年末までに2億7000万枚から3億1000万枚の範囲に増える可能性があると予測している。
- •54ドルの価格では、HYPEは予想利益の約15倍から18倍で取引されており、Grayscaleはこれをフィンテック同業他社と比べて割安とみている。
Grayscale said Hyperliquid’s HYPE token may still be undervalued despite this year’s gains when compared with publicly traded fintech companies.
In a research note, Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, said Hyperliquid can be valued using protocol earnings even though it does not issue traditional shares.
The asset manager used an earnings-per-token framework similar to the earnings-per-share metric used for equities, extending a valuation approach more commonly used in public markets to a crypto protocol with active trading revenue.
Grayscale expects Hyperliquid to generate about $1 billion in earnings in 2027, roughly 20% more than in 2025, supported by a recovery in crypto trading activity and additional income from a new stablecoin partnership.
Through Hyperliquid’s Aligned Quote Asset version 2 partnership, Coinbase serves as the network’s official USDC treasury deployer, directing part of the reserve income generated by USDC to the protocol and creating an additional revenue stream that could support HYPE purchases.
The value accruing to each token will also depend on changes in HYPE’s circulating supply.
Staking emissions and contributor unlocks increase supply, while fee-funded token burns reduce it. About 270 million HYPE tokens are currently in circulation.
Grayscale expects circulating supply to reach between 270 million and 310 million tokens by the end of 2027, depending largely on the pace of contributor unlocks.
Core contributors are currently unlocking about 550,000 HYPE tokens per month. Grayscale modeled scenarios ranging from the current pace to five times that amount.
Based on its earnings and supply estimates, Grayscale projects HYPE could generate between $3.25 and $3.75 in earnings per token in 2027.
At the $54 price used in the analysis, HYPE trades at roughly 15 to 18 times projected earnings.
Pandl said that multiple appears inexpensive compared with publicly traded fintech companies, suggesting the token may still be undervalued despite its recent rally.
For readers tracking the token’s setup, the main variables in Grayscale’s framework are whether Hyperliquid can sustain trading activity and how quickly supply grows as unlocks continue. Those factors feed directly into the earnings-per-token estimate the firm used to compare HYPE with listed fintech peers.
Risks include weaker than expected protocol revenue and faster than expected growth in HYPE’s circulating supply.
Source: Grayscale research note